LOL yeah I mean equating interpretations of a modeled atmosphere 30 days out as TRUTH is a bit beyond the pale to say the least. Educated guesses are informative and its interesting to watch how things unfold but anyone who's really paying attention can only conclude its silly to translate those into emotional stone even a week out, let alone 4...
IIRC last year in November the forum was replete with guesses how what looked to be near-epic blocking should lead to lots of great chances in December 2022. People felt pretty good about those calls too, and with good rationale. The persistent badly placed trough out west took care of that handily, the nadir being what could have been an historic Christmas week blizz turning into one of the wettest warm windiest grinches I can remember.
I feel good about wintry weather in December - because it's DECEMBER and that's when climo says those 'chances' begin to add up. And I'm ever-mindful that Lucy waits in the wings, hand on the football, ready to send us kicking to the ground in despair no matter what.
Watching what's modeled, reading the informed analyses by many posters here, and then seeing how it all unfolds, is fascinating, as is watching the emotional investments made on long-range forecasts. Que sera, sera!