wokeupthisam

"...something SCARIER..." smh Fear is the preferred ruse of govt's demanding the governed exchange their freedoms for more gov't power over their lives. "The urge to save humanity is almost always a false face for the urge to rule it." -- H.L. Mencken

Ensemble loaded pattern smacks of "Grease": linear factors "time, place, motion" and non-linear factors "groove, feeling" "Grease is the word, is the word that you heardIt's got a groove, it's got meaning Grease is the time, is the place, is the motionNow Grease is the way we are feeling"

Man if this was an episode on a 70s hospital show... "Start an IV of D5W, and transport immediately!"

Winter channeling demotivational posters (so far...)

Winter '23-'24 is on double secret probation...

hear hear!

I hear ya. Let's hope it works out so we're all ready to say it, but for the opposite reason (pics from Jan 27, 2015)

Just flipped to rain/snow mix here at 32F after 4" new. Wide view of the storm is impressive, striking how the northwest side of it isn't working with appreciable cold air out in WI, MI and IL... and the back edge is motoring along, hoping it keeps that up and swings through around 3am to limit the extent of hvy rain. Tired of the flash floods this winter...

Measure stick fail - showed 6" so I figured one cleanup. Went out at 5:30p and stepped into at least 10" to a foot. Powdery sideways snow / steady wind funneling where I placed the snow stick gave a false low reading. UTV plow barely handled it despite low water content, I usually do 2 cleanups for anything over 8". Need to find a different measuring spot. Beautiful winter vibe once again though.

3" at the snow stake, flurries now, 17.4F / 16.7F, NNW 6 G 16, 29.40 falling

-SN (.25" coating), 29.69F, NNE 5 G17, 21.4F/20.2F This is how to start a nor'easter, LFG

"the HUB"

Mid-May 2023 had a colder spell than the last two weeks of December 2023. It's been April since last Saturday in every sensible aspect - unfrozen wet ground; brown landscape; fog, drizzle, periodic rains; diurnals between lower 30s and lower 40s; cloudy; and earthworms active. This is exactly why you'll never catch me saying, "Hey - it can't get any worse than this..." Because - it can. And yet we persevere. Onward to January!

...out there... past them 10-day trees...

5.74" for the storm, lots of washouts around. Impressive long-duration winds and gusts too. Third nasty Grinch in 4 years, someday one will be the Christmas snowstorm I've been waiting for.

Very nice,

Exactly right, as is the obverse side of that coin: Even if the pattern IS great, it can still not snow in New England. When the mets explain 10-14 day model outputs, or weeklies, or seasonal indices etc – and say they ‘look good’ or not, they’re commenting on what the guidance is showing, point in time. As in, what the results should look like if that guidance verifies, sometimes offering their take on the likelihood of it verifying. But it’s just based on guidance that change over time more often than not. When it does, we get their take on the change. Silly to ‘cancel’ this or ‘lock’ that in LR, but irrational conclusions rule despite us all knowing that. I’ll be the first to admit my bias is to lean against epic outcomes no matter what the LR shows, which I attribute to a long life of New England weather watching and knowing how often Lucy tricks me into running at that football again. Still haven't achieved immunity, last year I fell for it again, got sucked in to hoping for a ‘generational’ winter event with all that anomalous blocking etc. Surely (I thought) there was no way a Grinch storm would time perturbations to ride through a massive block, and so when the LR on Dec 15-16 showed an historic bomb coastal around the 24th I was all-in. The fun lasted a day or two of brightly-colored apocalyptic model outputs and ruminations, until the inevitable (and dreaded) change – I think iirc the Euro shifted that low something like 500 mi in one run, then the other runs took all hopes and… rectum. Result: a Grinch for the ages last year... Yet there I was, and here I am, checking into the forum to see what the LR *might* have in store “next time”… and doing my best to remember it’s just point-in-time guidance and commentary, and more likely to change than not. Maybe a surprise pops in time for Christmas, maybe things change for the snowier after Christmas, maybe it all looks bleak through mid-January but nothing is a 'lock' - and we keep checking in to see how stuff is tracking and hearing some solid met insights into what's showing up. Doris Day was right: “Que sera, sera”!

52.2 / 0.77in wind calm occasional wilder gusts to 2.9

"Long range storms are frightful, but at Christmas they’re downright spiteful If somehow they give you snow… we know what we’ll get will be ‘No’! If they show a coastal popping, just in time for our holiday shopping By the time it gets here we know… won’t be snow, won’t be snow, won’t be snow… But if the long range all show a Grinch, then we’re certain it will be a cinch We can lock it in – it’s been clinched: won’t be snow, won’t be snow, won’t be snow!" Why do I always feel this dread about long-range storms as Christmas looms? Oh yeah - emotionalogy vs meteorology - NVM!

The weeklies, or the winter?

I think much of that came from Victorian era (Little Ice Age) stories and images, enshrined in songs and themes of Christmas that grew out of those. Dickens lived in a time when the Thames froze over and wrote "A Christmas Carol" reflecting a cold and snowy London in December. Newer jingles and stories have kept those snowy themes intact because it's so iconic, I guess.

I know what you're sayin', but last year's epic Grinch didn't subscribe - took this ash down in a gust and I caught it at the end of this vid so never say never ; )

So far, "we" certainly do. Enjoy the weather, it's the only weather we've got