wokeupthisam

I check in here for both the met insights, and the banter. Both are interesting enough to me to spend a decent amt of time reading and checking in. It's fun. The emotional reactions are a part of that, for better or worse. When I hear mets talking about favorable patterns it gives me a boost in day to day interest of what might happen, and I start hoping for something memorable. When patterns aren't favorable, it takes my day-to-day interest down a few notches, that's all. For all the obvious reasons (sudden recurving typhoon to proverbial butterfly wings in Mongolia) there's always a chance something unexpected happens. To think otherwise is just foolish. That said, long years of watching models has me realizing that when persistent patterns set in, it's time to watch for (met) signs of a change. And then when they inevitably show up, realizing they're more often delayed beyond the original fcst window. But getting mad at mets who are simply saying what the models show is an entertaining study in futile emotions, same as denial and wishcasting. It's all part of the board drama. All that said, I'm fine with a toasty November but hoping real signs of a mid-December change start showing up. Like others here, I hate to lose late December to torches so hoping the grinch takes a much-needed break this year for a change.

"Through early morning fog I see, the visions of what is to be "The snows that are withheld from me "I realize and I can see... "The torches are relentless, and winters are eventless "And I can't take or leave it, it's CC..."

46F and .46" Sympatico

Seems reasonable... Persistence Method (http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/guides/mtr/fcst/mth/prst.rxml) today equals tomorrow "There are several different methods that can be used to create a forecast. The method a forecaster chooses depends upon the experience of the forecaster, the amount of information available to the forecaster, the level of difficulty that the forecast situation presents, and the degree of accuracy or confidence needed in the forecast. The first of these methods is the Persistence Method; the simplest way of producing a forecast. The persistence method assumes that the conditions at the time of the forecast will not change. For example, if it is sunny and 87 degrees today, the persistence method predicts that it will be sunny and 87 degrees tomorrow. If two inches of rain fell today, the persistence method would predict two inches of rain for tomorrow. The persistence method works well when weather patterns change very little and features on the weather maps move very slowly. It also works well in places like southern California, where summertime weather conditions vary little from day to day. However, if weather conditions change significantly from day to day, the persistence method usually breaks down and is not the best forecasting method to use. It may also appear that the persistence method would work only for shorter-term forecasts (e.g. a forecast for a day or two), but actually one of the most useful roles of the persistence forecast is predicting long range weather conditions or making climate forecasts. For example, it is often the case that one hot and dry month will be followed by another hot and dry month. So, making persistence forecasts for monthly and seasonal weather conditions can have some skill. Some of the other forecasting methods, such as numerical weather prediction, lose all their skill for forecasts longer than 10 days. This makes persistence a "hard to beat" method for forecasting longer time periods." ...of course the persistence method works well, until it doesn't ; )

29.8F heavy heavy

First time seeing with the naked eye, spectacular, phone pics really wild. Different colors from deep blue, to purple, to orange to red depending on cardinal direction. Wow

Right, and as one who suffered thru those 1980s I think the futility was of a different sort. I remember several years of bone numbing cold shots blowing across bare or lightly dusted ground. That gave the sense of being in winter despite missing snowstorms in every way possible - the last two years haven't had that type of cold in SNE.

I recall the years when SNE was enjoying big snows, seasoned posters saying folks were getting spoiled and reminding to enjoy it while it lasted. Ones who lived thru the 1980s referencing the contrast, how bad it was and how much it would suck if futility returned. Aaand... Here we are, albeit with the bonus of constant allusion to endless warming, no wonder the frost has gone off the pumpkin so to speak...

39.9° covered the tomatoes just in case

52.2F and 0.74" much needed water. Dark and drizzly stark contrast to yesterday

56.1F raining lightly past 2 hrs, 0.13". After weeks of perfect outside chore weather, finally a good day for an after-5p bourbon and a John Wick movie

Low of 49.3, beautiful start to the day

Yeah and then there's also this important reality: "We have to remember that what we observe is not nature herself, but nature exposed to our method of questioning." - Werner Heisenberg And because our 'methods of questioning' are flawed and changing (not always for the better, ex 'improvements' in Euro model) those who buy into settled science are betraying their coefficient of foolishness rather plainly

A drone in town got this shot of the same storm from a little further away. Was amazing looking up at this from directly below but his drone shot is classic.

Core went maybe a mile N of me, constant CG, 'green' sky & cool structure