OceanStWx
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Everything posted by OceanStWx
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Yeah it's a little light in my opinion outside of the mountains. It's hard to go guns blazing this time of year, but something like the Euro snow depth for our "official" forecast at the moment would be fair. Generally around an inch outside of the foothills, and up to a half inch on the coast. I think that would be fair to signal in the point and click that accumulating snow is a distinct possibility.
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Ekster is off until the snow starts flying. I may bump, set, and spike this one all by myself.
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NAM coming in colder...
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Firing buns out of a t-shirt cannon this afternoon?
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06z NAM did spit out a 5" in one hour at CON...
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This time of year you really need the rates to be intense if you're going to stack up during the day. That being said, even the daylight hours Euro soundings had ~ 1500 ft warm layer at the surface. It's close.
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Some triple bun solutions overnight. The only reason the Euro wasn't a blue bomb was because it was offset by 6-12 hours and happens mostly during the daylight on the 28th.
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Tuesday, April 21, 2020 Gusty t'storms/small hail potential
OceanStWx replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
Who said it's not still a nice snow squall look? -
Spring 2020 New England Banter & Random Obs
OceanStWx replied to CapturedNature's topic in New England
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Tell someone to come pick Currier and Ives up, they're drunk.
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Nothing more painful than pulling down a headline that was already up, but the couple times a ran through the forecast and saw amounts slipping below advisory criteria (at night, going into Saturday morning = no impacts) the writing was pretty much on the wall that it wasn't going to happen.
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Good to see cloud tops cooling to the west.
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We are supposed to update the maps anytime we adjust the forecast. That could be as simple as using current temps to tweak snowfall amounts.
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Especially once you get out of the Hillsborough terrain, but I'm not about to mess with the advisory that's already up.
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Nice scented candle and soft music to get in the mood.
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If no students were there to observe it, did it happen?
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Wheeee
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Yes, in combo. We had significant dynamic cooling aloft as the low bombed out, but in the lower levels once we got temps down into the mid to upper 30s the melting took us down to 33 or 32. As soon as the snow let up temps tickled back up to 36ish.
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Basically. Our products and web images all cut off a few miles outside our CWA borders, so it's no man's land beyond that. For instance we have a tool that pulls in CAR's snow forecast in case we have to make a statewide map. We don't want to accidentally pull in our own forecast for their area. Because sometimes we do disagree. Yeah, if the lifts get in there it should be able to pound down 3 no problem.
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Because that stuff happens outside of your CWA and sometimes even hidden behind ISC you may never notice. Technically I have the ability to forecast all the way to CAR, but I never look at what I'm forecasting up there because it doesn't get sent anywhere. UNLESS you create an image off your whole domain. So it could have been that they chose the coldest guidance for their area which affected NYC, or had too much QPF in an hour that had rain and snow at NYC, etc.
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That's likely their forecast over their whole domain area and they forgot to run it with intersite coordination (ISC) on that pulls in the surrounding office forecasts. Oops.
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FCC fines incoming for gratuitous nudity?
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I think your window is 5-8z if you're going to get it. Check BGM's CWA before normal people go to bed, if they've got a couple strikes around 2-3z I think it's good to go for SNE too.
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That has a classic look of latent heat of melting (cooling process) right there. Just drilling the column down to freezing even though it wants to be warmer.
