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OceanStWx

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Everything posted by OceanStWx

  1. OceanStWx
    It is the worst part of our website, by far.
  2. OceanStWx
    Than our radar web interface absolutely, but they are still using NWS radars (in most cases).
  3. OceanStWx
    You can see a little twist of a MCV in there, so I checked out the WAA wing forecasts of the NAM and RAP guidance. Pretty good height continuity along the Pike to CT border area, but north or south of that and you are left with little or elevated WAA. You can see the meat of the forcing sliding along the NY/PA border right now. High PoP, low QPF.
  4. OceanStWx
    And if I remember correctly they tried to set up fire breaks along highways like Route 1, but the strong winds allowed the flames to jump the road.
  5. OceanStWx
    I don't know about a soaking, I think overall the whole thing is decaying. But rain is rain.
  6. OceanStWx
    My gut is still south. You're going to want to see convection at least to Saginaw if there is going to be any appreciable QPE in NH.
  7. OceanStWx
    Hedging your bets by attributing your forecast to someone else?
  8. OceanStWx
    What words are you putting in my mouth now? Pretty sure I'm on board with the KOOP missing the goods.
  9. OceanStWx
    Those two models I mentioned would favor the heaviest amounts along the Pike.
  10. OceanStWx
    CAMs did move a bit north from 00z. I'm still more in the HRRR or ARW camp trending towards the CAPE axis.
  11. OceanStWx
    That year was one of PWM's driest on record. From July 1 through November 1 they only received ~ 5" rainfall. 0.27" in August, 1.73" in September (but fell in basically two events), and another 0.26" in October. I would think one of the key difference between now and then is the fact that we're greened up vs down.
  12. OceanStWx
    What could go wrong?
  13. OceanStWx
    I'm on the follow the CAPE bandwagon.
  14. OceanStWx
    I get the obsession with AC now...
  15. OceanStWx
    It's typically pretty hard to get long term drought conditions around here. Even this one is a short term drought thanks to the last month and a half. Otherwise we were running normal precip. If you are wiping out groundwater for multiple seasons then maybe your trees could get crispy. That's why it's typically surface fuels that burn and not whole forests.
  16. OceanStWx
    My gut feeling is that WB will be status quo, while WM will see features grow over time (as long as Ryan doesn't leave there too).
  17. OceanStWx
    Couple runs old, but the 23.00z EPS had a 10th percentile of around a half inch for most of the area (i.e. 90% of the time you're getting at least 0.50").
  18. OceanStWx
    A sea of
  19. OceanStWx
    Ekster and I go back and forth as to whether we want the office to have WeatherBell or WeatherModels.
  20. OceanStWx
    I want to have access to the EPS again, our office account was either hacked or somebody gave out the password to a friend and it was shutdown. Any "big" rain signal this time of year better show up in the ensemble guidance otherwise it is likely just a figment of convective imagination. I know the Euro run from yesterday looked more like a MCS induced rain bullseye over New England than an actual synoptically forced rain event. Could we get a bunch of rain that way, sure, but I'm not betting on it.
  21. OceanStWx
    0.24 in the last 40.
  22. OceanStWx
    Losing instability as moisture is cleared out, so toast after that band.
  23. OceanStWx
    Personally I like that low pressure that goes WNW from DVN to BIS around 7/1.
  24. OceanStWx
    I've been tracking that for a bunch of years now, I've been pretty consistently averaging about 240 carry. Depending on how damp the course is anywhere from 250-270 on the roll out. The good swings can get me 270 carry and near 300 on the roll out. I would really like to figure out how to do that consistently, because the game does get easier.
  25. OceanStWx
    That's why I want to run the soil test first, but all signs pointing towards at least slightly alkaline at the moment.
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