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OceanStWx

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Everything posted by OceanStWx

  1. OceanStWx
    You're way closer to the peninsula than I am. I can throw a rock onto the turnpike. I'm in a good spot to stay just on the cool side of any coastal convergence.
  2. OceanStWx
    I had an 18" flag marking my snow board and I've lost it... And his heart grew three sizes... This is going to be a great case study though. Obviously even a marginally stronger/coherent WCB was going to produce a lot of frontogenesis with that high anchored to the north. It probably also helped to lock the band in place rather than translating as quickly.
  3. OceanStWx
    What timing for Terry! Honestly I could sneeze most of this snow away so it's not heavy in the weight sense, but for sustained heavy snowfall this has been one of the better in recent years. Certainly February 2013 was like this but most of it occurred overnight and I was locked into 30 of 36 hours at work. I've been full weenie mode with a nice daylight event. I haven't had 20" at the new house yet, and I may do it in the next hour if it keeps this up.
  4. OceanStWx
    It's a clown show outside. I measured at 1 pm and have 3.9" since then.
  5. OceanStWx
    Even as the intensity of the band comes down on reflectivity we're still snowing just as hard as at its peak. Must be the low levels doing the bulk of the work currently. When PWM is 16 though you can do that and it still works out.
  6. OceanStWx
    When the cold conveyor really kicked in here and we started getting that easterly flow, the snow really took on the look of some of our better ocean effect. Just really dumping dendrites.
  7. OceanStWx
    I just looked quickly at the NAM 12 hours apart and it's crazy really. Went from lift all above the DGZ at PWM to 40-50 ubar right in the heart of it. Snow forecast jumped from 9" to 17" with similar QPF. Our 12z sounding matches the 12z run pretty closely. The DGZ is nearly surface to 500 mb. Doesn't matter where you start lifting from, it's dendrites.
  8. OceanStWx
    Yes. No fun at the office for me, but I get to have happy hour!
  9. OceanStWx
    13.0" so far and 15:1 average ratio
  10. OceanStWx
    Kuchera ratios will definitely come to fruition in the meat of the band, because it’s actually producing pure dendrites at 15-20:1. Obviously you can’t broad brush Kuchera over the whole region.
  11. OceanStWx
    4.5” at 8 am, 0.26” liquid. Solid 17:1 from the mid level magic.
  12. OceanStWx
    Naked snow angels in front of his neighbor's house
  13. OceanStWx
    It's like toddler art, you just say "great job!" and hang it on the fridge anyway.
  14. OceanStWx
    GFS nailed this one.
  15. OceanStWx
    KDP showing values in the pristine dendrite range from there through western MA.
  16. OceanStWx
    Start high and adjust higher if needed.
  17. OceanStWx
    Yeah, really just need to find the DGZ level and best omega. But like you say, because the best lift is at one level, the precip will fall out slightly NW of there.
  18. OceanStWx
    I always felt like a high end advisory was our upside here given the pattern, so I never really bought our 8-9” forecast.
  19. OceanStWx
    It’s a compulsion for us. Can’t have a winter storm watch that doesn’t go to a warning.
  20. OceanStWx
    Look at those subtle changes on the GFS the last few days. As the shortwave over the Upper Midwest becomes stronger/digs, the downstream side of the ridge over the Plains gets sharper. It allows the New England shortwave more room to amplify.
  21. OceanStWx
  22. OceanStWx
    Ensemble sensitivity kind of backs that up. 12z GEFS has over 50% of the variance in members explained by a more tucked surface low. The ensemble is most sensitive to 500 heights trailing our shortwave. Meaning, the lower the heights upstream, the more tucked the surface low.
  23. OceanStWx
    Still a little too early for those kinds of defaults, but I say “classic” in the sense that forcing can continue with a more north of east trajectory rather than getting squashed.
  24. OceanStWx
    I had mentioned it awhile back in the thread, but the kicker was always coming into better sampling later so these additional moves even after the main shortwave was sampled should be expected. Sure enough the kicker was moving over sounding sides this morning.
  25. OceanStWx
    Can’t see the individual members at 500 mb, but overall it looks like the northern part of the kicker is digging more. In effect that sharpens the downstream side of the ridge out west. Makes the whole pattern more amplified and closer to classic looking for New England snow.
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