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OceanStWx

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Everything posted by OceanStWx

  1. OceanStWx
    Yes and no. In a truly tropical sense, yes, there will be no more access to warm ocean water. But the interaction with the upper jet (which will also be enhanced by diabatic outflow) will allow convection to sustain longer than you would normally expect for a landfalling system.
  2. OceanStWx
    Yeah you should listen to Scoots, the HREF has a very good verification track record. They are finding that having multiple model cores in there may actually improve its results over single core ensembles.
  3. OceanStWx
    I can't recall too many ENH with tropical systems. I wouldn't be on it, unless the 00z HREF comes in hot. It's especially tough because this is essentially tornado driven. Would need a 10% in there.
  4. OceanStWx
    Man, doing a tropical update is kind of like wrestling a bear.
  5. OceanStWx
    F
  6. OceanStWx
    We checked out the PWM sensor, it was reading 0.5 degrees higher than our standard. So well within tolerance.
  7. OceanStWx
    Someone tried to pass that off on BOX when they just hired someone who worked that tornado in Virginia. Oops.
  8. OceanStWx
    If I'm going to have to go with a full tropical forecast up here it damn well better strengthen to a hurricane.
  9. OceanStWx
    I think that's actually a warm wake off the top of the convection, the center should be tucked just south of that pink tower. But convection is wrapping around the center which is good.
  10. OceanStWx
    He might be in bed, but the poor guy crapped on the HRRR when it was showing this area as most likely to see renewed convection.
  11. OceanStWx
  12. OceanStWx
    Honestly don't hate the 18z 3 km NAM wind gust forecast. Right look to the wind field, if not within a few knots of what I expect the gusts to be like. Also chucks a few updraft helicity tracks for Ryan Tuesday evening.
  13. OceanStWx
    That's pretty good video for these parts. No real evidence of debris, but the TDS didn't show up until it was farther east.
  14. OceanStWx
    Damage photos from Falls Village area look tornado-like.
  15. OceanStWx
    Definitely looks like there was a tornado south of Canaan. TDS visible for a couple scans just after 6 PM.
  16. OceanStWx
    The environment is actually pretty primed just behind this lifting area of showers and storms. Like if that stuff near POU can get going, that could be something to watch.
  17. OceanStWx
    Yeah 7/1/17. Ekster handing out TORs like Oprah.
  18. OceanStWx
    For an East Coast recurve, you want a good upstream jet streak, mid level ridging north of the cyclone, and a good low level theta-e ridge drawn north extending well NE of the center. Model forecasts are pretty close to this conceptual model.
  19. OceanStWx
    I'm on Long Pond most of the summer. Great area, I don't hate it.
  20. OceanStWx
    Tornado alley of ME.
  21. OceanStWx
    It's a pretty solid pattern for a PRE based on the conceptual models.
  22. OceanStWx
    Because we only do records since 1941 for PWM (due to siting) 78 will be the all time record warm low*.
  23. OceanStWx
    In fairness, we don't know we had a tornado for GYX/CAR yet.
  24. OceanStWx
    Tossed.
  25. OceanStWx
    Gotta head to MIA for a warmer temp right now.
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