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OceanStWx

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Everything posted by OceanStWx

  1. OceanStWx
    12z Euro ensembles for 3+ just are not awe inspiring. I'm going to need to see more than 10% to feel good about a watch for my backyard.
  2. OceanStWx
    50% or greater confidence in warning criteria, which has changed for some areas (generally 6, 7, or 8 inches for this sub-region).
  3. OceanStWx
    Actually it was pretty remarkable caution for our area. At least up here in New England we were citing all the uncertainty we've been talking about in here today.
  4. OceanStWx
    Listening to a watch collaboration call right now. Will the WaWa map look like Cancun with the amount of GW or not?
  5. OceanStWx
    I started forecasting with the Eta and the AVN, which was the style at the time.
  6. OceanStWx
    ECMWF and Eta (the old name for the NAM).
  7. OceanStWx
    I'm seeing 20 -ubar/s, so if that is right in the middle of the a saturated DGZ that's a good warning signature.
  8. OceanStWx
    GFS DGZ RH/omega is definitely collocated NW CT through @dendrite and then @dryslot
  9. OceanStWx
    I'm more than satisfied with the positive snow depth change being 5 to 8 across most of the region. Even 3 to 4 in your hood.
  10. OceanStWx
    It's definitely not a pure slider. The Q vectors show that the band is going to try and twist a bit. So maybe more of a banana shape (there are meds for that) than arrow straight.
  11. OceanStWx
    I really like the mid levels closing and deepening overhead. 850 mb track is near perfect for a 128 to coastal Maine stripe.
  12. OceanStWx
    Scooter and his friends hanging at the lake.
  13. OceanStWx
    That has to be some kind of HR violation.
  14. OceanStWx
    That is weird. I thought those ranges were hard coded. That looks more like the goalposts than a range of expected totals.
  15. OceanStWx
    I don't know what this means, but the techs said there was a bad card that was replaced.
  16. OceanStWx
    We may never have another winter storm warning but...
  17. OceanStWx
    If you want to be a real weenie you could go 11:1, that's climo.
  18. OceanStWx
    Max temp and Kuchera are the same. There are two equations, based on what the max temp in the profile is. And then Cobb05 and Cobb11 are just the years the study and the update were published I believe. So in theory 11 should be a bit better performance.
  19. OceanStWx
    Yes. I'm partial to Cobb myself because it is more dynamic than other SLRs but it's not perfect around here either. It actually showed the 850-700 mb thickness as having the lowest errors in the eastern CONUS.
  20. OceanStWx
    I know we harp on it all the time, but I just saw a post from AMS that Kuchera (or Max T aloft) has the largest errors of all the SLR. Utah is testing a new random forest SLR that shows promising results, beating all other methods out there. Like the rest it does struggle most with the extreme SLRs (too low).
  21. OceanStWx
    The good news is that as modeled this isn't really one of those narrow laterally quasi-stationary bands. Those have the jet streak on the poleward side of the low track, with the right entrance region driving lift. This jet streak is modeled along and south of the low track, with the left exit driving lift. It looks more like a weak pivot or hybrid to me. So that should mean at least a decent precip shield to keep the threat alive.
  22. OceanStWx
  23. OceanStWx
  24. OceanStWx
    Only 21" of snow that season. Do you just let the molasses take you at that point?
  25. OceanStWx
    So that's a green light for more peach talk?
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