OceanStWx

Just took a little look at shortest "warm seasons" if you want to consider that dates between snowfall events. We measured at CON on 5/9, so if we could get snow before midnight 10/29 that would tie the shortest duration between snowfalls. 172 days.

Also an exercise in serious slab lifting. Those final few Bufkit frames across MA you can see the warm nose both cooling and rising as it's ripping off about 30 ubars.

RIP DGEX.

Low levels are absolutely frigid though.

I followed my Actually feels very good to dust off the old winter procedures.

Thanks. Not everyone thought so.

Our solutions are obviously snow or no snow, but the ensembles definitely seemed to be splitting into two camps of goose eggs and minor accumulations. Some triple bunners, but we toss those for now. Ensemble sensitivity had most of the variance tied to amplification of the system. So more amped may bring more QPF, but also more warm air. Flatter could also whiff completely (more so up this way). Gotta thread it, but cautiously optimistic right now.

I'm not going to go back and dig up the posts where you advocated just trashing it instead of going FV3, but it's worth noting that no significant changes have been made to the model physics. It's the same package as the v14 GFS but a different core to make future changes easier. FWIW, these are the cosmetic changes made: Any narrowing of the performance gap (perceived or real) is more likely due to Euro changes than GFS at this point. I'd like to see more than ~ 1 year's worth of data before calling that though.

Facebook reminding me that it was 8 years ago today that the Euro locked in on Sandy's left turn. Good times.

One of Portland's ballot questions is related to our dispensaries. I guess law is 250' between dispensaries, but the referendum would change it to 100'. My thought was I'm pretty sure I can buy a four pack of craft beer every 100' on Commercial Street so why not edibles? If 100' is too close to be viable, one of the businesses will not make it.

We knew the glory days would come to an end eventually, just like our run of AN snowfall winters.

That's not to say this alone could've clued mets into how the event was going to unfold, but once the convective threat was identified the max SHERBE values certainly highlighted the area most at risk for significant severe (and I would say that multiple ASOS gusts near 60 knots while not technically significant by SPC definitions is pretty damn significant for these parts). Some of the subtle differences I saw between guidance and observations included slightly greater separation between the lead light rain/cloud cover and the convective line. This allowed low level lapse (key variable for SHERBE!) rates to be higher than forecast. Unfortunately I don't have any forecast graphics of LLLR, only objective analysis from SPC, but I can get point values from Bufkit and compare to SPC. They generally were forecast 6-18 hours prior to the event around 6 to 6.5 C/km, but SPC indicates that they may have been pushing 7.5 by go time.

I've been messing around with data from the event, trying to tease out what, if any, lead time we (NWS) might have been able to provide with the scale and scope. The messaging was definitely not convectively driven. In high shear/low CAPE environments Sherburn has done a lot of work to try and craft a parameter to hone in on the highest risk areas. SPC hosts a couple of those (SHERBE and modified version) that use the variables most correlated to significant severe weather in that environment. The 7th certainly qualified as HSLC. I ended up outlining the 1.5 unit SHERBE area and overlaid it on the SPC reports and the results were pretty damn good.

The drought monitor product is a blend of Palmer Drought Severity Index, CPC soil moisture, streamflow, and precip over both short and long term periods. So probably a bit of a mixed signal in there up north, but yeah mostly academic.

Got an estimated time on that?

I do think models are weakening this stuff too fast, but more than likely it's going to be meh for us. Every 0.01" is liquid gold these days.

And we'll barely get a drop Starting to feel like winter already.

I don't know it's rained half of all days since I joined CoCoRaHS (10/1 ).

What thread is Kevin banging the wind gusts in?

This is good, get him used to the wintertime trends towards cutters.

My wife (Bates '08) has different thoughts about Bowdoin.

Heavy, heavy swamp maple leaf drop this morning in my neighborhood.

Are you looking at the backside of the Presidentials there? Have to get my bearings for winter webcams.

I can get up and down the basement stairs pretty quickly to grab a cold one.

Given how deep that trough is going to be and how forcing will parallel the boundary there should be plenty of rain along it. Especially if we can get that little wave to form along the front.