OceanStWx

Big Scooter snow forecasts coming after Christmas.

Who hasn't been there. Water, drop, water, drop, bunker, water, drop, green, two putt. In my defense my home course has a par 5 that requires you to lay up twice before approaching the green. So 2-3 water balls isn't that strange.

Threw mine up when it was 70 degrees. I'm not one to go from Halloween to Christmas, but we did this year.

The thing 10/7 had going for it that this one doesn't is the thermodynamic environment. 10/7 featured some pretty decent low level lapse rates and mid level lapse rates around 7C/km. The timing here doesn't work out for low level lapse rates to be significantly steep, and mid level is pretty meh. Enough for thunder possibly but not robust convection.

That's where I'm at. Cape/Islands has some potential to go higher, but the LLJ cranks too late for most (even up here). Visions of derechos dance in your head.

My father in law started my wife investing in her teens, just putting a little away every month. Despite my salary advantage her 10 year head start probably has our accounts even at this point.

Undergrad was definitely my loan load, I had a similar arrangement with my MS. I don't think I was clearing 20k in stipend, but didn't pay a dime for classes otherwise (unless you want to count about $800 for a semester to extend my eligibility while writing my thesis). I lived in a cheap studio in Lowell near the Chelmsford line, and my sole goal was getting into the NWS. Even still I was lucky to have the job but no equity, but my wife was lucky to own her condo. So between the two of us we could flip that into a house. My biggest mistake was probably deferring my loans while I was in grad school. I probably should've found a way to pay the principal down. Only cost me a couple additional years of payments, but man it feels good to have that anchor gone.

I was mostly worried I would be a terrible parent. I've never been a kid person. I don't love other people's children, but boy do I love mine. None of it is easy, but I'll always be amazed at how instantly my whole world revolved around that little guy. Like Will said, underrated funny, but also underrated how much fun it is to watch them learn things. We have a 3'x4' USA puzzle, and I could sit for hours and watch him put it together. He's 2 and half and doesn't even need my help anymore. Gets all the edges done and then knows where all the states go (the Northeast is two big pieces so he gets a couple strokes for the little states ).

I'll be sure to thank you when I steal all your snow this winter.

Might see a little wind out there ahead of the cold front on Sunday. Could make the back 9 (more) interesting (that it always is).

Not sure it's all garbage. Case number is rapidly rising, near exponential. If we start approaching 2000 deaths/day, it's off to the races I think. We've never seen a weather model waver either. I mean these disease models get new inputs all the time (cases, state-wide COVID precautions, mortality rates, etc). So it's not surprising that numbers and the prediction horizons change. I assume they are referencing the IMHE model, which is updating every 2-4 weeks, which is why the horizon keeps moving about a month each time.

Not unless COVID is spreading through the interwebs now. We've been holding our spotter training virtually and I drew the short straw with the first session and highest turnout.

I was worried with well over 100 people in the meeting.

Apologies...

It's going to be big. ARW/NMM are really big snow totals, HRRR is decent, and NAM nest the lightest but not bad by any means. The NSSL WRF looks pretty amped on precip too. So I suspect the snow probabilities of the HREF take a big step forward. That being said, these are mostly 10:1 snow algorithms, so grain of salt.

Some of the classic rules of thumb for heaviest snow don't look half bad. Like the -4C 850 isotherm being a proxy for where heaviest snow will fall. That more or less sits on Route 2 tomorrow night.

Wouldn't shock me to see a bump north today. Ensemble sensitivity showing ~60% of the variance explained by a more amplified system. So maybe models overcorrected flat and will tick back some today.

So we're obviously testing GFSv16 now (hence the parallel version showing up on websites). One of the stated strengths of v16 is: I think the second sub-bullet is what you're driving at. So hopefully the test period here will support this perceived strength.

Ensemble cluster analysis has really bifurcated today. Almost all of the slower solutions are now EPS based, while the faster/flatter ones are all GEFS or CMC based.

I remember it was 1/4SM +SN at BDL during mid afternoon and our forecast still called for southern NH to start as rain. That was CON ZFP from 1929z, it started straight snow at CON at 2006z. Literal LOL.

Elevating this because in short, yes. There have been no major changes to the GFS, and none planned until next year at the earliest. So there is still a general cold bias in the mid levels. But there is also a bias to over-mix the boundary layer, keeping the surface a little too warm and dry when precip is falling.

NHC does great work, but it is a known that the GFS/GEFS has a right of track bias and a fast bias when storms are headed north.

Does Kevin still love this new FV3 core?

Meh, GFS is a little deceptive across southern NH anyway. Soundings are warm at the surface, but it's plenty cold aloft for snow. Ain't going to be a crusher though.