OceanStWx

I'm disgusted.

Developing way too late to score that much to the SW.

I really have very little recollection of the storm itself because I was at school, but it is the reason I'm working for the NWS now. UML wanted me to do a research project on it using an old Weather Event Simulator from BOX. So I was going to collaborate with them. The WES died, but I turned that into an internship for the summer, which turned into a thesis, which got me over the hump and into a met intern spot at DVN. And now you're all stuck with me.

There's a pretty good TROWAL signal, even on the regional Canadian. It's essentially in the same position as this GFS version but 3 hours delayed.

I love the HRRR depiction of 1 hr snow totals, because it's only going to give you a number where it thinks it's snowing. So you can see the pytpe changeover as the coverage expands. Starts in the higher elevations of the Berks and ORH Hills mid morning and then it's game on by midday into Metrowest.

I'm actually pretty excited for the toaster baths during the day tomorrow. "You said I was going to get snow!!1!@" ...right before they flip to 2"/hr.

Fall back on conceptual models and ignore the 2 m temp noise. Between 18 and 21z those winds go from NE to N in Essex Co and that should stop any warming potential for the rest of the event.

I need to see it in Bufkit before I'm entirely certain, but at 15z Sat it looks awfully close to freezing throughout the column despite being 37 at the surface. It looks like the lowest 500 m or so are above freezing for sure (~1600 ft) so that's pretty close to all snow that early in the day.

You trace that cold side of the innermost closed contour. That's a tasty track for a lot of people on this board.

I'm not even sure it's suspect 2 m temps, just clicking around a few point soundings and it's such a razor thin margin on the profile. Essentially isothermal near LWM up through PWM but hard generates any snow out of it. I'm pretty confident that if we can get the sounding to isothermal it will pound.

You totally could. Will your measurement say that high, probably not, but the actual snow falling under the best forcing will be in that 12:1 range.

We play with fire. Might end up 33 and rain, but might also end up with no power for a week.

We were essentially running out of time for watches yesterday. They are typically a 36-48 hour product, and given the scale of this potential a headline is kind of preferred. Now if you're talking the difference between double digits and 0 snow, a watch still makes sense. It's essentially 50/50 you'll get warning, but the lower bound is just a skunk rather than a few inches.

It was nice knowing James.

FWIW, the 06z GFS is probably the best upper air match at 12z. 12z NAM and 00z Euro are both not deep enough with the upper low over MO.

You really don't need that much certainty for a watch, it's a 50/50 product. I tend to think of them more as a 4+ inch product. Higher chance you'll see at least an advisory, but not necessarily a warning.

Based on the mid level tracks I would think coastal ME would do better than the NAM shows on its clown map. It is bringing some above freezing air in at 850 because it's so wrapped up it sends the mid level front to BGR. I tend to think the lift and melting would help us keep that layer cooler.

Yeah it's got some sneaky warm layers around 800 mb, but otherwise it's pretty damn near isothermal below that.

Still snowing.

That's what the HRRR is doing. Like 6-7 straight hours of 1-2"/hr.

Shoulder season events often are primarily driven by latent heat processes. Given that there isn't serious antecedent cold, or strong advective processes for getting cold into the region, this one seems like it will be no different. The biggest latent heat process will be latent heat of melting. Throw a ton of snow in the column and you will cool it by melting those snowflakes and taking heat from the boundary layer. So yes, if you have high rate precipitation you can flip faster and stay snow longer. Even the typically cool in precip NAM has the lower boundary layer torched to start. So there will definitely be some work to do with getting down to around just the lowest 1000-1500 ft above freezing.

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We've hit 41 and 42 knots on separate occasions so far. You can't be much farther off that.

Not going to show much. Need echoes to estimate a velocity. I still think the core misses you to the east but you might see a little secondary peak in winds here in the next hour.

Here comes round two?