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OceanStWx

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Everything posted by OceanStWx

  1. OceanStWx
    To my eye there's better spacing between it and the next wave, so it shouldn't slip east as fast this run.
  2. OceanStWx
    I want you to go straight Ukie tomorrow night.
  3. OceanStWx
    By 12z Thursday the left exit is south of Halifax
  4. OceanStWx
    Yes and no. The straight blizzard watch no longer exists, but we are able to insert code into a winter storm watch that will trigger the wording to say blizzard conditions possible.
  5. OceanStWx
    Honestly between the two models though the old conceptual model of heavy snow along the -4C isotherm is pretty similar. Lays out over CT and RI and really doesn't push much farther north.
  6. OceanStWx
    Contrast that with the Euro that actually develops a 700 mb low and gets those 50 knot WCB winds into SNE.
  7. OceanStWx
    That mid level WCB, just scoots east after delivering for the Mid Atlantic.
  8. OceanStWx
    Initial watch was 12-24" for everywhere except along and southeast of a Newport to Plymouth County line in SE RI/MA.
  9. OceanStWx
    By this afternoon you're starting to get into the 48 hour timeframe, which is a more traditional watch lead time.
  10. OceanStWx
    There's still quite a bit of time left, and when watches go up you tend to get locked into your first guess forecast amounts. I'm not sure there is a ton of confidence for parts of the area when it comes to snowfall amounts.
  11. OceanStWx
    Agreed. The good news is that the second wave packet has yet to be sampled completely yet and it's been subtle changes in its location that have made some big differences.
  12. OceanStWx
    This is a signal I don't love. Euro is able to overcome it to an extent, but it's similar to how the GFS handles it. Throwing multiple shortwaves into the longwave trough is complicating the flow just enough. Like when you get two closely spaced waves at the beach and the lead wave gets held back by the trailing wave some.
  13. OceanStWx
    Shortwave seems a hair weaker than 12z Euro, but there are higher heights out ahead of it which should compensate some.
  14. OceanStWx
    You've got the order correct.
  15. OceanStWx
    I think based on the old files I can see, graphics start uploading around 06z and finish 384 hours around 09z.
  16. OceanStWx
    Actually not sure when the graphics dump, but they haven't come out yet.
  17. OceanStWx
    It's entirely possible that the GFS is right. If the spacing between the main shortwave and upstream shortwave are too close, a sheared out mess is possible. So this above is also not surprising. The 00z GFS is probably the worst result, with narrow wavelength and extremely sheared mess by the time it reaches New England. So it stands to reason that the GEFS would have plenty of members that have greater spacing and more amplified solutions, dragging the mean north with it.
  18. OceanStWx
    I mean the GFS tends to be northern stream dominant, so maybe it's just bulldozing the whole pattern with the James Bay shortwave. I'm still firmly two feet in the GFS is too far south camp.
  19. OceanStWx
    I'm trying to look for run to run changes over the last 24 hours. All I'm really seeing is the spacing is shortening between it and the kicker shortwave, and there's another shortwave in Canada (coming out of Hudson Bay) that has been slowing down run to run. Prior runs had it clearing before our shortwave arrived in New England, so there was more room to amplify. Now it's just getting crushed as they arrive at the same time.
  20. OceanStWx
    Wild. It was a deeper trough and had more ridging ahead of it, and it just strung it all out in the end.
  21. OceanStWx
    Definitely looks more amplified into the southern Plains. Can it hold it together though.
  22. OceanStWx
    GFS looking slower and more impressive shortwave out west.
  23. OceanStWx
    It's like my own sultan signal. 12z GEFS over half the variance is explained by some tucked solutions in the NY Bight (™Tip). There isn't a strong sensitivity to the upper air pattern until probably tomorrow afternoon at the earliest. We want to start looking for higher heights over the Upper Midwest. I think intuitively that makes sense, a more amplified upper air pattern could result in a more amplified low vs. a more zonal pattern.
  24. OceanStWx
    I think it is instructive that the whole evolution is not just sensitive to the confluence to my north, but also the initial strength of the shortwave. The GFS/GEFS are just flatter/weaker with the wave. Otherwise the overall pattern looks pretty similar.
  25. OceanStWx
    Probably a good thing that it's not getting chewed up and spit out east early.
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