OceanStWx
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Everything posted by OceanStWx
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They do note that the liquid was completely estimated. I wouldn't expect a mountain to not advertise 48" of snow, but it does make my spidey sense tingle a bit.
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Santa coming in hot and heavy?
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I know I remarked about how in this band we squeezed everything we could out of the atmosphere. Well as my SOO pointed out through Bosart, the ALB sounding at 12z had a PWAT of 0.43". Just 2 hours before that balloon was launched ALB ticked off 0.36" in one hour. That's nearly squeezing out all the available moisture in the column, in one hour.
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Record is 47. Let's do it!
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That type of evolution is more like what the sensitivity suggests for the NCEP suite than the EPS. Not seeing as clear a signal on the EPS anyway.
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Settled down to 14.5" on the ground from 20" yesterday.
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Well, our old radar page sucked. Bad. This isn’t much better though. Not intuitive and graphics are only so so. So many good sites out there we could’ve reached out to for ideas.
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I can see it now, instead of ringing a bell for food Ginxy’s ringing the bell for the 18z snow measurements.
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I’m leaving it out right now. But there’s roughly a 0% chance my wife will keep an eye on it an make sure it doesn’t overflow if I’m at work. So I’ll probably end up doing cores too.
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He stopped short of giving your a ICAO ID but you’re in there. Now that I’ve started CoCoRaHS, I’m loathing the 4” gauge. I miss my WFO 8” bucket. The 4” nearly overflowed with snow twice during this event.
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For sure. That’s what Ryan and I were kind of talking about last night. BGM didn’t have wild ratios or anything, they just maxed everything out of the atmosphere.
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Auto-generated from the human forecast. It just takes our grids and produces the binned impact levels. It’s still experimental because we’re trying to hammer down impacts. Like snow last year was one set of values across the whole country. But 2 ft here is not 2 ft in a place like RDU. My guess is that blowing snow tripped to extreme due to combination of wind gust forecast and snow ratio.
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I mean BGM rates were good, ratio wasn’t necessarily extreme. I’d have to see their 6 hour break downs. If they were over 20:1 I’d say the DGZ was likely deeper, but 15:1 for the event could just been excellent dendrite formation.
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The main graphic takes the max category of all the individual inputs. So an extreme flash freeze for instance would show up as extreme in the overall storm threat. Snowfall categories are based on climate of the area, so 12-18 is unlikely to trigger that. In this case it looks like blowing snow triggered it. Probably due to the strength of the wind and visibility.
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Kuchera is going to be a fine representation where ratios were extreme, but I view it as right for the wrong reason. It was right because the airmass was cold, not because it knew anything about the DGZ depth or lift within it. As forecasters our job is really to sniff out these record events from model noise. I’m not sure there was a ton of signal in the noise until yesterday’s mesoscale runs started really getting beefy. This looks a lot like a good old fashioned model bust on the dynamics at play.
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I really didn’t think I was in line for a foot. More like 6-8”. I thought the fight with dry air and a deamplifying system was going to win out. That’s pretty much where I’ve landed too. We must’ve maxed out the f-gen with the Arctic high and WCB. The high kind of locked the band in place and didn’t allow much movement north. If I had to guess, the upper air pattern probably ended up more conducive for a parallel band than even a pivot.
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Final of 21.7” The last 8.7” was 23:1, but storm total was 1.8”/hr and 17.5:1 average.
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Bring ‘em up?
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Finally tapering off here. I’ll get a final measurement when it stops for good.
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My kid doesn’t know what hit him. He went down for a nap with a foot and wakes up closing in on two.
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It's pretty amazing. Since the first flakes tripped the ASOS at PWM at 4:20 I've averaged 1.8"/hr.
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This is bananas even as the radar is petering out. Work asked for an update on rates (they issued a SPS for heavy rates last hour based on my 3.9"/hr report). I knew it was snowing hard, but I picked up an additional 4.8" in the last hour. 8.7" since 1 pm. Storm total 21.7". Dumbfounded honestly.
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You're way closer to the peninsula than I am. I can throw a rock onto the turnpike. I'm in a good spot to stay just on the cool side of any coastal convergence.
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I had an 18" flag marking my snow board and I've lost it... And his heart grew three sizes... This is going to be a great case study though. Obviously even a marginally stronger/coherent WCB was going to produce a lot of frontogenesis with that high anchored to the north. It probably also helped to lock the band in place rather than translating as quickly.
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What timing for Terry! Honestly I could sneeze most of this snow away so it's not heavy in the weight sense, but for sustained heavy snowfall this has been one of the better in recent years. Certainly February 2013 was like this but most of it occurred overnight and I was locked into 30 of 36 hours at work. I've been full weenie mode with a nice daylight event. I haven't had 20" at the new house yet, and I may do it in the next hour if it keeps this up.
