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OceanStWx

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Everything posted by OceanStWx

  1. OceanStWx
    That day shift sucks.
  2. OceanStWx
    Probably going to stay that way for a bit. We're looking at 3 days until there is a coherent GEFS signal for what this system will be sensitive to. It looks like it will be tied to the wake of the weekend system, not surprisingly. If we allow heights to rise more quickly behind this weekend, there is a better chance we don't whiff something on the 4th like the Ukie hints at.
  3. OceanStWx
    Just close the blinds and pretend it happens.
  4. OceanStWx
    Brutal.
  5. OceanStWx
    Not unless someone drives their truck into a telephone pole in a fit of rage.
  6. OceanStWx
    If you look at mid level temps I thinks this shows up pretty clearly. While not cold, the above freezing mid level air does get swept out to sea in the wake of the weekend system. It at least allows us to start from a place of temp profiles supportive for snow, vs needing to cool the entire air mass via lifting/evaporation.
  7. OceanStWx
    Dry slot looks like it is going to sneak in pretty fast too. So as things currently stand it doesn't strike me as one of those overperforming SWFEs.
  8. OceanStWx
    I see Ekster already got to the snow grids for tomorrow night, because it looks like we have a solid advisory-level for most in there now.
  9. OceanStWx
    We get the entire 12/00z ECMWF runs at 80 km. No 06/18z. So really even for ECMWF stuff the internet has better resolution, more runs, and similar available fields.
  10. OceanStWx
    Well to a lot of the NWS if it isn't in the AWIPS toolbox then it's not in the toolbox at all. But so much good data is available online now that I'm not sure how one does a forecast without the internet. In fact, if I'm long term now I don't really even use AWIPS beyond analyzing the current upper air pattern. Everything else I use is online (ensemble sensitivity, EPS/GEFS, ensemble situational awareness tool, CIPS, etc).
  11. OceanStWx
    If you get approved for CWOP then your obs will come directly into AWIPS and our obs grids and BOX won't be able to ignore northeast CT anymore.
  12. OceanStWx
    I think the "worst" reviews" it's had so far have been from SPC and NHC. The NHC doesn't love the significant right of track bias but understands that it can correct for that so gave it a passing grade. Similar with SPC and the low CAPE bias (due to overmixing the boundary layer).
  13. OceanStWx
    For a while we were the only two who cared to consult the EPS for a forecast, but we've indoctrinated the kids now and even some of the short timers.
  14. OceanStWx
    Technically it's in its test phase. If there are no hiccups between now and February it will replace v15. So far the evaluations have been favorable from each region and SPC/NHC/WPC. But you never know what kinds of problems could crop up, and it only takes one issue to fail the test.
  15. OceanStWx
    When you step up into the professional multi-license (so you can view on several computers at once in an office setting) it starts to get pricey. Some WFOs are being denied the funds to open up a subscription, so I consider us lucky to have a 4 license subscription at GYX. It's crazy though, if we didn't I would also be asking Ginx for screenshots of the EPS. Spent all our money on the radar page and have nothing left to bandwidth and model data. I kid. Mostly.
  16. OceanStWx
    There's always room to adjust up later.
  17. OceanStWx
    I do work the event tomorrow...
  18. OceanStWx
    Around 13,000 ft over FFL there is a nice KDP signal for dendritic growth (KDP between 0.2 and 0.8). Not surprised it's coming down good in that area.
  19. OceanStWx
    Depends on the algorithm used to create the clown map. Some do all precip below 32 degrees as 10:1 snow. Even sleet in a Kuchera map is not going to be perfect. You would need temps aloft pushing 5C to get Kuchera down to a 2:1 sleet ratio.
  20. OceanStWx
    Actually because most of the lot was natural waste area that couldn't be cleared it's a lot of overgrown crap. I'm trying to slowly reclaim some of it by planting native species and do things like blueberry for the kids to pick. But those first couple of years are key to getting the roots to take hold. I could use a nice pattern that retains my pack during the heart of winter. Torches followed by brutal cold ain't going to help the shallow root systems.
  21. OceanStWx
    Can't wait until I'm yelling at my own kid to get off my lawn. Actually I'm having more trouble insulating my new plants with the lack of snow cover.
  22. OceanStWx
    I've been spending a lot of time on the lawn, so yeah hands (and feet) off!
  23. OceanStWx
    Banana hammocks as far as the eye can see.
  24. OceanStWx
    I've seen a few evaluations for the v16 now. On the whole it performs better than the GFS for a lot of things. Primarily you'll probably hear about its 500 mb Z scores. So far it's running a solid 3rd (behind Euro/Ukie) and a definite improvement over V15. It also improved the medium range cold bias. It does however have a significant right of track bias on TCs, and still overmixes the boundary layer and produces lower CAPE than ideal.
  25. OceanStWx
    I get to light the fuse and run on Thursday afternoon, so it won't be my problem. Ensemble sensitivity shows a tough pattern. It could be interpreted as both a position error (mainly due to timing) or a strength error (in the vicinity of CHH). Gut feeling is that if you lower the pressure significantly near CHH, you lock the cold across the interior.
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