OceanStWx
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Everything posted by OceanStWx
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I actually think for those near the track of this meso low that it could be some "holy shit, what just happened?" while outside of that path it's just a typical strong nor'easter. The Cape forecast should be three buns hanging off the flagpole.
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LLJ over 70 knots for CHH for like 18 hours at least.
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Looks like the eyewall closes off before it makes landfall on ACK. But for real that's an outrageous run. Rakes all of SE New England with some big wind. Some of those dunes on the outer Cape would be rocking 80 mph.
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Almost shelved the wine for Spooky Substance this week. It's a shame all the acorns this event will shake down onto your lawn.
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Wind gusts are always an order of magnitude higher than the ABV.
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Gotta mix it out for the interior to really roar.
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March 1, 2021 62 mph from the NW. Before that, the October 2020 derecho (70 mph). They had another 60+ from a thunderstorm in August 2020. And before that February 25, 2019 65 mph from the WNW. All of these are WNW or NW wind directions. Hmm...
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Back to back posts.
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MWN
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Interior I would think is more "standard gusty" for a nor'easter but currently not thinking headline worthy. It's really that surge of wind with the meso-low. Once that passes it will more of a steady strong wind gust regime. But I could definitely see a couple hour period where intensity picks up as that feature slings west.
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That's a nasty run. 5+ rain and 70 knot gusts for the Cape/Islands. I think so, but the grids are mine now and I can do whatever I want with them. I honestly think if those numbers were in knots I would like the forecast better. I think Seacoast will need a wind headline almost certainly, and PWM just shy of advisory would be a fair forecast right now.
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Why? It would still be 2-4" rain and windy.
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If Kev hits 50, CT is going to have power issues for sure.
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fACKed
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Even though it's a max wave height, it makes good conceptual sense. When we issue storm watches/warnings there should be 20 foot significant wave heights in the forecast. Max waves are typically double the significant wave height. A 20 ft wave forecast should get you in the 40s for max possible waves.
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Surge forecast is pretty wild. ETSS is nearly 4 ft at Scituate. That's big.
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Late morning looks sneaky for some of the hills just above valley locations. Like pretty isothermal around freezing above 500 ft off the deck. Primary lift region is a little warm, so we're not talking serious accumulation but enough to stoke the weenie fires.
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Functionally the LLJ develops in a similar location and strength as 12z, so I agree that sensible weather probably isn't much different.
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Honestly that's better analysis than I see with some folks tossing around Euro wind gust maps.
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FYP
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It's more or less forecast to be warm core from about Chesapeake Bay's latitude. The Euro simulated IR even looks like it tries to develop the old ring of convection in the center of the occlusion a la
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Plus there are a number of ways the formatter can generate that text. It may be the average winds in the entire watch area, or it may use a moderated max gust where it only takes part of your peak wind gust forecast, etc. But the 10-20 mph doesn't look great in that text product, IMO.
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Their leads have all been there since I was in college 15 years ago, and at least 5 of their 7 mets grew up and/or went to college in New England.
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Technically speaking, a watch is 50% confidence while the forecast ("wind gusts up to 45 mph") is the most likely outcome. So while it's not ideal for the forecast to not match criteria of the headline, it is possible.
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October Discussion: Bring the Frost-Hold the Snow
OceanStWx replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
I only use the median when it shows a more exciting number. But yes, in this case it tells a lot about last evening's model runs when compared to the mean.
