OceanStWx
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Everything posted by OceanStWx
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We had a good one in 2014, and also 2011 (which ended up being the last big one for the season )
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We have 0.1" between 7 pm and 1 am Friday evening at Portland and that's it for snow, but it could be 1"/hr and mashed potatoes on the roads rather than your plate of leftovers.
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Around Portland the NAM is a cold, light rain with the dry slot still flirting with the area. But as the mid levels start to really take off watch what happens. The column becomes moist again up through 500 mb, we cool, we lift, and we steepen the lapse rates right in the snow growth zone. That's nearly dry absolutely unstable, let alone moist absolutely unstable.
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Looking through some of those forecast soundings around here and...
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With satellite sampling there's only so much info we get gather. It's possible the abundant cirrus over that part of the Pac isn't allowing the satellite to sample the correct depth of the wave, but these newer satellites are also better at filtering out some of the noise.
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Maybe as early as 12z Friday. Kind of have to hope it catches a raob site, because BC is a bit of a black hole between Port Hardy and Fort Nelson. Ideally Yakutat and Whitehorse will catch a piece of it tomorrow morning.
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We're still talking a feature that is over no-man's land in the NE Pac. We're pretty much relying on just satellite sampling to get a handle on it.
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Watch up north for upslope, watch down south for late coastal, watch everywhere for Monday!
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Today I'm thankful for the 06z HRRR.
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Ensembles concur. Lots of sensitivity to that particular shortwave. It's almost traceable back to initialization today south of the Aleutians.
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I feel like the last few years have given us several good events to learn from.
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I think now with the SVR with tornado possible tag available we have an ideal avenue for those tricky scenarios where you aren't quite confident enough to pull the trigger on a TOR. Especially when you could argue some of these tornadoes are probably not much different than a SVR anyway. But you have to be ready to use them.
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Ooo, good question. I'm thinking the CT were prime "microburst" candidates because they were away from the main show on Long Island. There would've been a handful on the island that had enough damage to warrant a closer look. But I think half or less is definitely on the table without dual-pol.
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Now we're getting to the right number based off TDSs.
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I'm pretty excited we were able to get at least some up and running before this season kicked off. I helped install Zealand so I'm especially glad to see things going smoothly so far.
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He uses his weenie like a divining rod.
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But that's 300% of normal!
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I think the primary issue is too many land owners in the problem areas around the radar. Also someone in their infinite wisdom in 1993 decided that a half height tower would be fine in a stand of trees. Now that they're all grown up we're going to have to spend millions to raise the tower to full height. But that may not be until 2023 or 2024 at the earliest.
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And now our location is totally inadequate with trees growing up around and blocking the radar from land we don't own and can't alter, never mind the dried up well and non-potable water (we've since fixed the airborne radon issue).
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You can tell by some of the roundish bullseyes that there's not much data to work with in some areas. This map was probably just ArcGIS, there's elevation adjustments involved but not PRISM.
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This is going to be Coop and ASOS data only, so obviously there are some gaps to begin with. I think couple that with the fact that this weenie jackpot is most likely West Hampstead, they only have data back to 2004, so they've been pummeled in recent years and their normal isn't the full period that other sites are. In just under 20 years of records they have 4 100" seasons and another at 98".
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I'm still waiting for my 70-71 at PWM (141.5").
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Ginx stroll by with one of the pups and drop an upper decker in your gauge?
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Electric Moo?
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Ah, the old no pants damage survey.
