OceanStWx

Maybe you can celebrate the solstice by burning the kids' sleds. The lawn is still green so no risk of fire spread.

Can start to assess the GFS maybe as early as this morning, but certainly throughout the day today. Going to want lower heights across western Canada to keep these more amped solutions alive as a threat.

Out of around 100 ensemble members the GFS op would be in the top 10 members for snowfall at ORH if not top 5 for instance.

Despite what the GFS shows, the ensembles are all in general agreement. There's a couple bigger hits for the interior, but mainly a lot of solid advisory/low end warning events.

The time of year when I just start to refer to everything as "a front"

It's sneaky dry aloft. MWN just now warming up to -11 dewpoint.

Can you really have a CJ if it's just one weenie?

There's an argument to make that when you have an inverted trof such that winds are calm (often the case in the convergence zone) a land breeze enhances convergence and lift with the concave shape of the coastline from Cape Ann up through Casco Bay. Could say similar between Cape Ann and CHH.

Early look at initialization for the 18z runs.

March 1992. Just a classic bust forecast. Forecast was clear at 9 PM on Thursday, then went from occasional flurries at 6 PM on Friday to 10-15 in the PWM area by 4 AM Sat. Essentially the primary difference between an inverted trof and a NORLUN is the near stationary aspect of a NORLUN. Kind of like a square/rectangle argument. All NORULNs are inverted trofs, but not all inverted trofs are NORLUNs (there are some temp difference and moisture requirements, but most of those are typically met with inverted trofs anyway).

Another thing you notice with both the CMC and the GFS is that they have pretty big dropouts in skill relative to the Euro. Every so often they just whiff, whereas the Euro tends to always be in the game even if not totally correct.

While the stats are true for 500 heights, I do think the continued drilling down of resolution is resulting in MSLP/QPF inconsistency that is not super desirable in an age when models also spit out clown maps. It's one thing when you have an 80 km NGM and you know its QPF is wrong, it's another when the 10 km Euro shows the deformation band over your house and it "looks" believable.

They did because it sounds like "new" not nu. And xi is a common surname and they didn't want to pin that on anyone.

A real easy check is to use the day cloud phase RGB product. Snow will show up green (ice cloud pink, water cloud light blue).

The trend towards more synoptically driven really ate the upslope potential. It was partially why I held off from warnings yesterday.

I still hear plenty of coworkers talk about trends when they're just comparing the last two runs.

Hints of a little WCB strengthening now, with the cloud tops cooling over SNE.

Which one is that?

Melting layer suggesting we may even flip for a bit in this heavier burst of precip.

If we were generous and compare Foxboro to ORH, the average is 2 to 3 events a season with 6+ inches.

Monday too. I feel like the 3km makes a little more sense if you are purely taking the clown maps. I'm not sure I'm buying 3-4 at PWM just yet. Somebody is going to get skunked between the light stuff/upslope and the coastal taking over. Probably in the LCI/IZG to AUG corridor.

Like I have 3 at BML and 11 at MWN. They're in the same zone.

Our whole forecast area is 6" in 12 or 9" in 24 as powderfreak said, but the P&C is also going to be a much smaller area than the entire zone. We're typically looking for 50% of the zone to hit the mark before we pull the trigger. Our zones are set up poorly for upslope snow, unlike BTV.

Happy hour for all!

Congrats HUL