OceanStWx

Sometimes it's not surprising to start as sleet because that warm layer aloft hasn't wetbulbed down yet. 7 is probably the right higher end number.

I like the snow depth map better. But I've like 4-6 for most of my CWA for the last couple of days.

Just step out into the rain with the toaster still plugged in.

Well the high school is sitting at a wet bulb of 40, which is what really matters. And that wet bulb should actually cool a bit tonight prior to clouds moving in. Color me more bearish if the 00z soundings are substantially off on their temps aloft.

Yeah, I'm not sure what the real "bust" potential is for you. Expecting 8 and getting 5? Meh. Nearly the entire CWA should wet bulb down to 32 if not colder when precip comes in. Only place I'm slightly concerned with warm surface air is the Seacoast.

Check some cross sections. I'm not sure it's subsidence so much as it is vertical velocity not occurring or maxing out at 700 mb. There's a lot of low level lift and upper level lift.

Well that asterisk in the title is key, it includes sleet as 10:1. So basically anything frozen is treated as a front end thump. It may be close on the surface temps, but that's about it.

It's going to be a weird one. If we're getting dendrites it's not likely to be from the layer around 500 mb, but maybe in the low level WAA that runs into the -8C air that contains some salt nuclei. I'd probably keep my meaty zone in the 8:1 to 10:1 range.

Yeah I feel more like 4-6" but know there will be some 6+ in there. Which sucks for trying to pick out winter storm warnings, but it's also a weekend and the impacts aren't quite as high.

I'd agree on the aggressive. We have only rain or snow in the forecast, which is why our totals are so high. The lowest ratio we have is about 6:1, but if it sleets it's going to be much lower than that (can probably halve your snow amount in that window). Biggest red flag I'm seeing right now is that no matter where I click around for a sounding I'm seeing the DGZ around 500 mb. I prefer it around 700 mb because that's where lift tends to be maximized. When the DGZ is up at 500 mb it's a warm atmosphere and lift is poorer and ratios usually stink. I wouldn't be going with climo ratios with this one if it were my forecast.

What's Ekster's t-shirt idea? The snow starts sooner but so does the sleet.

I mean BOS does average 30.9 on the 19th and 30.6 on the 26th, but the 24th averages 33.3. So the Grinch does show up in the long term climate record.

Bryce unable to sleep because of the parrots squawking outside his window.

We have 1P1, IZG, and WVL all stuck at 33 too. That's the corridor right there.

I wonder if winds are downsloping off the Whites and mixing out that inversion.

They sent out info to the NWS on crisis counselors, and I get it. When you're in it and issuing warnings there can be a video game aspect where it's not real. Until your shift is over and you see what happened on the ground. It's jarring.

Well you kind of did on 6/1/11

I don't see many hyperventilating about the violent tornado drought anymore. I'm 100% okay with not issuing nocturnal tornado warnings as part of a routine job duty.

That's just about as textbook as it gets.

Already have one TDS NW of LSX.

I may get there someday, but I don't quite look like that yet.

There's 60+ kt of 0-3 km shear over MO. There's going to be mesos spinning off left and right. And there's a little bit of 0-3 km CAPE that lingers into central IL. So I wouldn't be shocked with a few tornadoes in that line.

Ho ho ho