OceanStWx

It's also a problem that they've been taking 72 hours to get here from PDX. With such flat flow small errors are magnified when things are moving quickly.

The way our grids our broken up this is Thursday night. The nights run 6 pm to 6 am. So 4 am technically sneaks into Thursday night.

It's a numbers game. If BOS pulls 3" a week in the heart of winter it's virtually impossible for them to have a below average snowfall season.

00z clusters sort of flipped from 24 hours ago. It was a 55/45 splits OTS vs tucked, and now that's 46/54. Members that liked the tucked clusters included 65% of CMC (), 55% of GEFS, and 48% of EPS. But that still just means that on the whole the ensemble suites remain pretty split on which way to go. The good thing is that the agreement between members that produce more QPF than the mean and those that don't. The flatter the flow the more like it is to scrape and scoot. Pump the downstream ridging a little and deepen the trof and the QPF is higher than the mean.

Heights across the Puget Sound area look pretty close to reality with the 12z GFS.

That aspect of the pattern is a limiting factor for sure. But if you can get a real dynamic deepening in our backyard it will want to cut across thickness lines and every hour counts.

Absolutely. GFS bias is more progressive anyway. But I can already see the sparkle in the weenies' eyes of 2 ft in 9 hours or something like that.

Great look to the mid levels, but boy that GFS is flying. In and out of BOS in less than 12 hours.

Not especially hard to rime snowflakes enough to produce a graupel-like hydrometeor, but there was just so much supercooled water thanks to the convection that more true ice than "Styrofoam" started falling.

He had an 80% chance of no pants on below that NBCCT graphic.

You know we'll get at least one run like this.

That's where all the variance is coming from too. That handoff from the North Pacific into the western "ridge". Still looking at tomorrow/tomorrow night when some balloons may be able to sample some of that. All the spread is in the area of a tucked solution. WPC cluster analysis is nearly split down the middle. 55% of the members farther east, 45% tucked in closer.

That's probably going to be the biggest story in post-event reviews. Not buying the snow threat wasn't great, but then no real mention of a power outage threat. I think you're being a little harsh there. Kuchera and 10:1 were pretty similar maps. But that depth map isn't that far off reported totals as it winds down. DCA reporting a snowfall and depth of 6.7/7. The over 10" amounts are just south of the DC area like shown on the 02/12z ECMWF. Maybe the depth is going to miss the highest amounts, but overall that map will be vastly better than the 10:1 or Kuchie maps. Of course that's why we don't like to forecast with clown maps to begin with.

I’ll never not think of tornado controversy with that town.

Nice MAUL down in AL. No wonder they are pulling TSSN.

Maybe Scooter can bag an OES band and still end up at 2 inches.

Love the -35 dewpoint in the mid levels.

Better chance of seeing this tomorrow.

Snow depth change products are all around 4 to 5 inches for those cities. Might be better between RIC and DCA, like CHO, where 6+ is being hit a little harder.

There's going to be some brutal gradients on the northern edge too. Philly wondering WTF happened while 20 miles away gets 6+.

Social media tornado report last year (of course it ended up being correct ) Still not seeing a lot of room for dramatic improvements here. Northern stream is still coming in deeper than model forecasts, which is going to tend to flatten the whole thing out. Any minor differences in the southern stream or ridging ahead of it doesn't look to be enough to overcome. It's really splitting hairs, but when the expectation is 2 inches at IJD and the highest model guidance is like 0.8", no wonder people are always disappointed around here.

Of course it could be just as likely to jump 40 miles south.

They are underdispersive too, which is one of the reasons why they are upgrading to 100 members soon.