OceanStWx
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Everything posted by OceanStWx
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Ultimately the lead on shift, but the other mets make their forecast if they are tasked with the storm and the lead only steps in if it's just bad/wrong. Management doesn't usually dip into dictating the forecast.
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Sure, but that means you have to factor in all the upper air patterns that match and by no means are the analogs a lock on widespread heavy snowfall. What these tell me is that the coast looks pretty locked in, even the bad ones still caught the coast with decent snow. But there are also a couple complete whiffs in there. I don't think that happens obviously, but it goes to show you that this type of upper air pattern can produce many different results.
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No. About as classic a going down with the ship forecast as there ever was. PWM ended up with 2 inches after a blizzard warning was hoisted to Sugarloaf. I think like 5 or 6 of our warnings verified out of 33.
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That's the biggest red flag I see right now. Everything has come in ripping that east, and not just surface precip either but 700 mb f-gen/omega too.
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Yeah... I think I'm pretty good, but I can't computer all this environmental info in my head. I have to base it on something. And right now I don't see a lot of evidence for high confidence historic storm. Locally? Maybe. But to do historic at the 4 major climate sites you need at least 17 at BDL and PVD to be in the top 10 2 day snowfalls, and 22 at ORH and BOS.
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As I get crustier I'm more convinced than ever that we (NWS) shouldn't entertain 24+ in our forecasts until we see the whites in the eyes of a band. It gets forecasts into trouble more often than not. We always seem to chase the peak runs in the 48-24 hour window and inevitably have to back off inside that in most areas. I think the last 72 hours at least have been pretty consistent from an ensemble perspective, despite what individual members/models had.
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I mean I would hit that 700 low in a heartbeat. The GFS has all the best QPF east of its track. I'm tossing that run to Georges Bank with its surface low.
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That's Kevin's opinion because it doesn't have as much snow as he wants. It is definitely a tool any office can use (we have QPF available to bring into the forecast). But every office does their own ratios and weather grids to create snowfall amounts, so no they didn't just pull in the HREF snow amounts.
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When did a foot plus for everyone inside 495 become shit? Gotta manage expectations a bit.
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I think this is the correct take. Take the climo average during this event because of the wind. But under the band will probably be able to push 15:1 still. But ratios rely on so much more than temp alone that I really don't factor them in at all other than is the lift collocated with the ideal temps.
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You yelling this to your family every time Ryan's map shows up on the TV.
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Made sure to sneak the 12-18" line under Tolland. Nice.
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It's definitely not my area of expertise, but you wonder as all these models drive down into this not quite convection allowing but not not convection allowing zone if that's not a large reason why cyclogenesis when you have a lot of latent heat release seems to be a little more unreliable.
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Whether intentional or not, we (NWS) tend to focus on the maximum amounts and be too broad with those amounts than realty. But it’s also nearly impossible to forecast the location and intensity of a band even at this range.
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I'm baking in a messenger shuffle at the end, but definitely thinking our snow totals will have to go up in the western edge of our watch area.
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Zonked is always a NAM worry. But it has some support from the Euro, which makes it more believable.
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Well I'm taking them up... At the coast. I feel like confidence is pretty high on a decent floor at the coast, so I'm bringing totals up there while keeping the interior more or less the same. Phin should love it.
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I'll bet everything that doesn't happen. (they don't exist anymore).
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This is starting to look like Jan 2018 modeling except closer to the coast.
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Similar to yesterday's horror show at 18z, there's no reason to go all in here either. Trends look good, but 00z could easily messenger shuffle east and we don't want to overshoot the forecast.
