OceanStWx

It's really a CAD look despite the cold not really holding. The spots you expect to torch their way out of CAD are doing it. HIE 47 but BML 37.

Helps that the dewpoints are still in the 20s. I had a hard time getting temps falling into the 30s for most places through the night but pushing 50 is a lot. Then again when it's ripping at 60 knots at the top of the inversion it's hard to cool off much with all that WAA.

BTV does a great job with upslope. I think some of that is due to a relatively high population living in impacted areas and their radar is well positioned to capture it. Upslope north of the Whites is essentially invisible to our radar because we're either blocked or overshooting. I think a lot of times a less experienced forecaster could completely miss an upslope event if they just glanced at the radar. I always have a webcam up from somewhere north of the mountains, and my rule of thumb is if HIE or BML drops to less than 3 miles, it's snowing hard in the favored upslope zones.

We were trying to get hard data on it before John moved from Pittsburg, but our guess was that we probably only forecast like 60% of the snowfall up there. A lot of hand waving of upslope snow showers at 30 PoP when it's 1/4SM for half the day.

That's real close around GYX. It's a marginal sounding, but hanging around that magic 1000 ft depth of warm air that can be overcome if rates are heavy enough.

Maybe we can chuck a bunch of precip into the column and wet bulb it down to 33 and when it clings to everything.

I mean technically this was run out of the NWS' basement...

Ended up with 2.6" total frozen, maybe maybe an inch of that was snow. My depth is up to 4 inches, but boy is it solid.

They are, but may also suffer some of the same issues the GFS does. Like trying to forecast ice off instantaneous ptype but 3 or more hourly QPF. I think the biggest issue is that the model ends up having too much snow cover and then becomes too cold going forward through the run.

That seems like a fairly obvious no go. I can understand frozen to a degree, but freezing rain??

Ugly stuff from the GFS code. So basically if any fraction of the ptype in the period is frozen (sleet, graupel, etc) it's considered snow. AND what's more when calculating the snow depth change it treats frozen and freezing rain the same, as positive snow depth changes. So that's why the GFS was so inflated on totals where it mixes. It thinks it's all snow. Basically they never had a serious ice storm in the test window.

We're going to need your liquid it looks like, because the PWM precip sensor is hosed. Claiming over 5" for the day.

PQI area shouldn't have had any mixing. I think our system defaults to the last report type you entered, so my guess is that was supposed to be snow.

Scooter smash.

Big aggregates now at GYX as the mixing waffles just a hair south of us.

Yeah, we're also doing extra soundings every 3 hours to provide additional data. We tried to during the blizzard as well but lost two balloons that were shredded in the wind and a third sonde hit a tree (or the radar?) and lost signal.

Come on, he briefly hit 32.4 at 9:45.

You can easily see the boundary close to the radar if you loop BOX velocity. Dropped PVD from 54 to 37.

Models handled it really well. Kind of took the cold surge and sloshed it off the ORH Hills but didn't get over the top into CT.

Scooter below freezing before Kevin.

You can't ever bet against those warm layers.

Hard hat day out there. Measured 0.9" sleet before I took off for work. Went below freezing sometime between midnight and 5 am.

I told you, that lift means business. Hope you stay on the good side of it.