OceanStWx

I'm not inclined to believe that any more than I'm inclined to believe halving snow in the next two decades. Solar inputs have indicated we've been cooling for at least decades now, and annual average temp hasn't cared one bit. Now significant reduction of snow cover days, that I could believe. Anyway, the EPS EFI highlighting the Pike to NH border with the most extreme values right now for the model climate. But nothing eye popping, which to me points towards a pretty standard sort of SWFE for this time of year.

Well climo for the season is soon going to 0 after all.

Right at the transition zone it'll be decent, but in the all snow area - garbage.

During the blizzard he was one of the few mets I saw that included a band of higher snow totals NW of the main show and he stuck with it through all the wobbles. Turned out to be a really good forecast. But he does love his garden, so there will be tweets.

We've learned not to shit talk snow in our discussions/social media lest we get the hill folk backlash.

ACY beating GYX.

Flash picked up about 20 minutes ago between OWD and BED.

Boy the sun will shine straight through that inch to the ground.

Well it still may crap out before getting here, but the squalls are well west in NH right now. This really is a great case for using all available obs (i.e. satellite) because the radar can make you hallucinate that it's meh when they go through dead zones. I don't think this line increased in intensity so much as it just got sampled better as it got closer to BOX.

Sting could give you some tips.

What I would give...

We're starting to lose its utility because of daylight, but I find the day cloud phase RGB curve to be helpful for stuff like this. Where you have the greener, liquid cloud tops, especially when they start to glaciate (turn reddish) at the top you've got a pretty good convective snow shower going. That looks to be the case all the way up into Cheshire County before it starts to get broken and/or weaker.

FYP

Mean of 57 for BDL, lots of low to mid 60s though along with the duds.

<1/4SM visibility from CYUL to ISP.

It represents the location of the center of convection (and thus latent heat release) near the equator. The convection can build ridging, which then affects downstream pattern. You can see how ridging forced from 7/8/1 could favorably line up with -EPO and cold for our local area.

Charlton has a nice line up today. King Julius, Haze, Gggreennn, Doubleganger. I've liked the "Treat"s in the past too. Kev may be able to comment better on the Jjjuiceee Project stuff, but it looks good.

Not moving with the surface flow, so I think it's tied to something higher aloft. It also isn't evident near BTV when you look at various loops, so the radar is only seeing it at higher tilts. It also is meteorological I think, at least CC doesn't look super low like chaff. There's a boundary on WV that looks like it could be pushing through now, like the shortwave trof axis.

Hard to tell but it looks like a chunk of lake ice has broken off on Sebago and is being pushed south by the winds. It doesn't look like cloud cover normally looks and it is definitely moving slowly south. Can't say I've ever seen that before.

Yeah, congrats on the WINDsEX.

Without fail. I cling to hopes of another March 2012 like I cling to my DIPAs.

I'm not sure if it specifically will be replacing everything, but the rapid refresh forecast system (RRFS) will be taking the place of all the hi-res stuff. That's not until late 2023 at best, so I expect a lot of work on the CAM FV3. I honestly don't know enough about it to know why it has struggled so much.

Running back through the last 24 hours of model runs and it seems the globals in particular struggled to capture the magnitude of f-gen in the mid levels. NAM had it, but GFS faded it well south of where it actually is. Euro somewhere in between.

That sums it up pretty good. This burst is all 700 f-gen, continues through mid morning, the reorganizes closer to the low. But this band could produce some decent fluff this morning. Brief crosshair in the DGZ.

I'm actually somewhat interested in this band on radar right now. Well aligned with 700 mb frontogenesis, which is right around the DGZ. 00z NAM had it pretty close to its current location (06z lost it ). I think this may actually produce more of the surprise snow than the consolidating around the low pressure later.