OceanStWx

It's the default setting to be honest. There are arguments for and against. One number (it shouldn't be to the tenths though) is just the middle and most likely forecast. But ranges show uncertainty better. The problem is ours aren't dynamic like Ryan's can be. So we only can ever say 8-12" or 12-18", never 10-14".

Yeah, 48 hours lead time is a LONG time for a warning. I tend to think it's too much time and the public often gets confused when the snow is supposed to start. Also there are plenty of events that slide away or cut north inside the last 48 hours. We're always confident...until we're not. That's honestly the argument most times. As far as hype goes, yes. But the timing of issuing I don't much care who lives there, I mostly try and hit high traffic news times. Before they wake up, after dinner, before the 11 pm news, etc. CAR just happened to opt for 10 am today which made us stick out. We wanted to see all the 12z guidance before making a southern extent warning call.

Just because they are a day ahead doesn't mean it's correct. Too often WFOs (ours included) thinks there is more confidence in an outcome than there actually is. There is considerable boom or bust potential on the southern edge of the heavy snow. On average the Northeast WFOs rarely miss an event (10-20% of the time) but false alarm (i.e. issue warnings when it doesn't happen) 30 to 40% of the time. In my opinion waiting an extra 12 hours can really improve the second number while not hurting the first. And it's not like a watch doesn't already let people know it's going to snow.

It was not. I was long term that day, but obviously had one eye on the short term. I saw the 06z GFS rip almost 5 for PWM and thought WTF. So I checked around on Bufkit and there were a couple sneaky crosshair type signatures. These are the sneaky events that I wish we had more time to do internal reviews of.

I'm thinking less, more showery this time. Maybe can sneak something better south of here.

PWM only measured 0.4" too, so they were really close to rain just 10ish miles to my south. I was near freezing so everything stuck to the trees. Maybe like 1 inch more and we'd have had some power issues.

Now that's what I did have for the GYX area. I did think the coastal front forcing would help boost totals, but I expected that more north of IWI.

I had cobbled together some crappy panels (left) with chicken wire but they weren't sturdy enough and had big gaps at the corners. So I made cages (right) last spring out of deck balusters and that repurposed chicken wire. Added some decorative hinges and handles (not pictured here) with locks. I could probably dig up the instructions somewhere.

Managed 2.7" without the visibility ever getting worse than 1 1/4SM last night. Also I really hate missing the snow forecast by that much. I had forecast 1.1" for PWM yesterday. Sure the difference is just over an inch, but something about double what I forecast always hurts.

Agree to disagree on this one. You call it a civil conflict among Ukrainians. Say what you want about Luhansk and Donetsk, but there was no civil conflict in Kyiv yet they are being bombed every few hours. Russia overstepped on this one, there's just no way around it.

Are you consuming RT for news? Russia hasn't exactly been displaying targeted strikes so far. Plenty of damage in non-military parts of cities and plenty of civilian casualties being reported as well. Could it be worse? Sure, but this hasn't been surgical so far.

There was some good MAP discussion on it yesterday. These kinds of events have the right synoptics to produce 1 inch QPF, but once you get inside 48 hours and the mesoscale models become available you start to see the finer scale details that can lead to sucker holes and underperformance.

I think the open waves at 500/700 really hurt the potential in the end. It dried out real fast from 600 mb and up.

I've been banished to balloon launches for the last week.

You're welcome.

No. Warnings typically have large goal posts because it's easier to cancel early than extend at the end.

I think there will be some redevelopment too, my concern is that will be a narrow area. I would like to see cloud tops cooling if we were to pick up widespread accumulations to end it.

Guidance (at least last night) showed that the dry slot raced in between 500 and 700 mb around 15z. So I can't say I'm surprised that it's getting poor now. There were signs of Scooter on the runway with his flares. I was always a little skeptical of the northern edge of this. There was broad 700 mb f-gen, but more of a widespread light stuff, vs the 850 mb f-gen which cranked near the MA border. This is correct. I was on board with a beefier SWFE here, but it's clear that the dry slot aloft is overwhelming good forcing around 850 mb.

That extra 3 hours is all the difference. Bufkit NAM/GFS KTOL to KBOS split is 4.2/6.9 to 7.5/11.5. When you're snowing around 1 inch an hour, the hours add up.

And if you look at the GFS f-gen prog for instance, the 850 and 700 mb forcing is sloped into the cold air. So the 850 forcing near the MA/NH border will be south of the 700 mb forcing in the Whites.

Agreed on the quasi-stationary aspect. It's a lateral band as it pushes into SNE, but then doesn't seem to make the full run through the region and starts to slide east. That makes the standard 6-10" not really useful as a forecast. It's hard to toss the EPS when it's been so damn consistent on the MA/NH border for days now.

Had to give my boy his sled early that Christmas so he could actually use it before our 21 inches was wiped out. His first taste of true winter disappointment.

Not really the thread for this, but Regardless, should be a nice event. A little tricky since it's more of a hybrid than true SWFE. Instead of one big lateral band sweeping over the whole region is starts to slide east late and becomes more quasi-stationary. So that northern edge is not a lock (beyond the mix issues south). So like congrats Dendrite.