OceanStWx

I do like the overall ensembled H5 look though. Confluence over the Crown of Maine at least supports the cold surface temps.

I think that's the one.

The only one that really jumps out at me with 0.5" radial on just in-situ cold air was the late 90s that started below zero but ended up 50s and thunder later in the afternoon.

There are really two ways I like to think of it, active or passive (in-situ) CAD. Active you either can get a backdoor of sorts to drive the cold south along the terrain, or the pressure gradient is oriented just so as to produce that barrier jet that holds the cold in place. In-situ CAD you wet bulb down below freezing thanks to a dry air mass and the cold just takes a long time to scour out, but eventually does because there is no barrier jet.

Forget making a snowman, my son's favorite thing to do is shovel the snow.

The most difficult thing about forecasting ice is that it's such a narrow variable space to maintain that as the dominant ptype. I typically lean heavy on sleet because of that. The problem I'm having with some of the forecasts I'm seeing is like for BGR: Roughly over the rest of the event there a forecast of 1 inch snow, 1 inch sleet, and 0.33 inches ice - off 1 inch QPF. If you take conservative ratios of 2:1 sleet, 10:1 snow, and 0.7:1 FZRA, that's already over 1" QPF. I just don't think there's enough QPF for all these things to happen, either sleet robs from FZRA or vice versa.

You should post a trigger warning before these.

I enjoyed the 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation. Well it's 0% because they get to make the call on whether it's tropical or not. Strictly speaking I would say it's a decidedly non-zero percent chance that it is subtropical.

You could actually see the mixed precip wash out between Augusta and Bath as it ran into colder air to the southwest.

I don't like to use that word in general around here because it evokes 1998, but coupled with words like major the messaging can get out of control quickly. We'll see how it plays out Downeast, but with a forecast of 0.5-0.75" flat ice I could live with significant ice storm. Major? That's like 1" radial (so more like 1.5" flat).

We even took a few calls yesterday from people who went online and saw Wunderground forecasts of 5-8" and wanted to know why we weren't also honking about it.

I would be leaning more snow/sleet showers too.

Not sure how much of that is going to be snow. It's warmer to the east, GYX had a 776 mb temp of -1.2 C, so not a lot of wiggle room.

It seemed mostly fine as long as you knew to toss the clown maps and dig into ptype.

Yeah, my gripe is when there is a dry slot or at least saturation that mimics a dry slot. The 06z Euro had over 0.33" QPF through 18z today at PYM. Clearly that didn't happen, but would certainly drive some big modeled snow totals.

Big night at the breweries. We've all had that kind of morning after.

Just so, so bad on QPF when the column isn't totally saturated.

Forecast soundings were showing rolling waves of lift in the DGZ, so a ragged radar does not surprise me one bit. This band more or less should hold together through 1 to 4 AM, so once the sun lowers in the sky snow will start to stick more readily. It really is a perfect storm for things models handle poorly. They don't do well estimating QPF when there is dry air aloft. They don't do well estimating snowfall in marginal environments.

I think we need to deep six that 4-6" area, or at least shove it way in and up. My ideal might be to take all our totals down a category (i.e. 4-6 becomes 3-4 etc).

I buy some of the Cape/SE MA totals, but otherwise there's just too much contamination with sleet for these modeled snow amounts to be real. Any time steps with sleet dominating are going to be like 3 to 5 times too high in snow amounts.

Climate Forecast System. It's an ocean/atmosphere coupled seasonal model.

I would consider it a win if you can coat the ground. Euro snow depth change is like 2 inches, which is about as high as I would be willing to go.

DGZ is a little high, and not always fully saturated on the forecast soundings, but otherwise there are several periods today where the max omega is forecast to be right in the heart of the DGZ. Should be good for at least a couple nice bursts. I could see the advisory expanding southwest towards EWB.

Just save the energy next time the Euro pops a +PNA and get one of these.