OceanStWx

Halloween Ale or bust.

Just @ me next time.

GYX is actually participating in an experiment with a new visualization tool, mainly for support services, but I think it's going to have pretty large forecasting impacts too. The website allows you to play with the so called Grand Ensemble (GEFS, EPS, CMCEPS), including adding or removing members, comparing differences, etc. But you can also view individual cluster groups (pants tent stuff). For instance here, clusters 4 and 5 are the wet ones (12z run) and both feature higher than mean heights across northern Maine and the Maritimes. i.e. you increase the gradient and resulting easterly flow into New England.

Deep easterly flow is famously dry in New England. My quibble is definitely with his "always", as convection will induce a circulation of its own that can either enhance or diminish moisture transport. The circulation will be counter-clockwise around the convective feature, so a SW/NE oriented line of convection would tend to shunt moisture east. SE/NW oriented would do the opposite.

Mid season form already.

Stopped to grab a pizza to bring to work and lo and behold.

It raced through Casco Bay but looks like it's getting hung up on Lava Rock. Almost like the Tolland Massif, it has to bend around rather than go over.

But was it a hurricane?

In my younger days I thought it would be a terrible place to be a forecaster because the weather never changes, but in some sense it's more difficult because everything is so subtle.

Pretty good composite snow map TBH. I would maybe extended the mid level magic back towards Stowe however.

I see a 4.74", so no doubt somebody got 5.

There's a good correlation to secondary and tertiary rounds of heavy rain leading to flash flooding too. First round primes the pump, the second has nowhere to go but run off.

Whole month's worth of rain washing down the storm drain.

Nice cell just south of Saratoga. Rocking 50 dBZ over 40,000 ft. Big boy core.

Sending the temperature police now.

FWIW, PWM set their consecutive 80+ record with 16 days as of yesterday (today makes 17).

Mow down the forests and plant corn and soy everywhere.

My only question, why 81? Why not 80? It's still going to tie for 3rd longest stretch of 80+.

Probably sneaked in a moderate drought before July's soaking.

It's not long for this world anyway. All MOS will be NBM based soon enough.

Nothing gives me more pleasure than edging...the driveway.

Wasn't really much to it. Based on the timing reported on social media, it seems like this was a lone cell ahead of the larger line. But there wasn't much rotation to speak of, nothing like the stuff pointed out on here (by Ginxy I think). More of a landspout than tornado I would say.

Had nearly an inch in the gauge when I left for work. to the .

That's a better video that what I saw earlier. Contrast is real tough, but if you look closely you can see cloud elements rotating around the front of the funnel. I am comfortable calling that a tornado. Weak one (no debris whatsoever that I can see), but a tornado.

I'm only about 10 inches behind last July.