OceanStWx

Trying to figure out what/where that feature might be, the best I can come up with is the 700 mb boundary. RAP forecasts it to sag south like this, but re-establishes itself farther north overnight as WAA really kicks in. It is farther south than even the 00z run had it though.

Seems someone forgot to reset the radar this morning, so much of that is from last evening's thunderstorms.

There is a nice pool of low level moisture over much of SNE, but the best surface convergence through the low levels is across CT, then arcs northeast along the coastal front/sea breeze. The convergence is also stronger in CT than along the coastal front. It's really slamming in from the south.

It's a statistical analysis (which is why they also give 90% confidence interval bounds, i.e. 3.5 to 7 inches for 3 hours). In the most basic terms they take the period of record and look at annual max values at each time interval for a region. From there they use statistics to establish the range for each time interval and location (like I think RI shows no statistical difference in amounts between each location so they are all the same values).

Average recurrence interval is 200 years at PVD for 2 hours at 4.4 inches and 3 hour at 5.13 inches. Amounts near that have been observed.

Ginxy body surfing through the block to rescue neighbors on a raft of doo?

This is as close as I get to nude at work.

The boundary is sitting just north of the Kent County border, and I don't see much reason why the rains won't continue there given the cells feeding into it from the southwest.

That's not a bad separation vector on that tornado warned cell. ZDR arc and KDP foot are definitely showing size sorting, and the vector is close to perpendicular (maybe 60ish degrees). Sign that there is streamwise vorticity (not surprising along the frontal boundary) and should at least maintain for a little bit.

Especially that eastern part of town is relatively flat and kind of historic meandering river/stream drainage from the higher terrain north and west. Couple that with the sprawl of concrete from Providence and you have a recipe for flooding.

I'm still stunned by the photo, because that's a downhill stretch of 95.

This is like classic tropical rain though. Z is mostly moderate across RI right now, ZDR on the lower side (~1-2 db), and KDP around 1 deg/km. Now KDP around 1 or 2 can be either heavy continental rain or heavy tropical rain. The giveaway is ZDR. Large continental drops would be large ZDR (flatter than they are round), but tropical raindrops stay close to 1 or 2 db as they are smaller and more spherical.

The location more often than not was not particularly accurate, but the amounts were the key. If they were showing up in your CWA, you should sit up and pay attention to the threat. Rarely do these significant rainfall events occur without some heads up from guidance these days.

It's more of a resolution thing. They know that this atmosphere will produce prolific rainfall, but they can't resolve the mesoscale features that will force it. So they convect over large grids.

18z HRRR trickling in has 9 inches through daybreak. There was a big CSTAR study on mesoscale precip forecasts, and one of the finding from the modeling team was that the HREF max products are usually a good red flag indicator of potential. Like if the HREF says 10 inches max, that means the environment CAN support 10 inches and don't sleep on it. You may only get 5, but you should be paying attention. The current HREF does indeed have some 10 inch amounts in CT, and even 5 inches in 6 hours. The way the 3 hourly mean/max QPF forecasts back build towards HFD tells me that it's going to be somewhere southwest of the current QPE max near PVD that jackpots.

The guidance certainly wants to fill CT in, especially early morning hours, but I think it will be tough to move the heaviest out of the corridor you see setting up on radar now (from DXR to IJD).

The more meso-scale the guidance, the farther south the max QPF is. So my guess is the global guidance is forcing the QPF off the mid levels, when in reality the low levels are doing the heavy lifting today.

NAM says 4.

Still barely actually rained at the airport

Like the dunes at Truro. Or should I say doo-nes.

Ugly look from south of Kevin through Ginxy into northern RI. I have a feeling the SPC mesoanalysis is falling apart over the water with some bad obs or model background, but this appears to be setting up to train right along the moist axis in the 925-850 mb layer.

Took advantage of this cool/rainy Labor Day and threw down the nematodes last evening. I know it was their parent grubs that ate my lawn, but I'll take the children as revenge.

I think for me I'm turned off by LIV for two reasons. The first is that nobody has just said they are taking the cash (except Varner who just said his grandkids are set for life now), and second it's exhibition golf. Exhibitions are fun, but every week without stakes is going to get old. At least at a tourney like the John Deere you have guys clawing for their first win and potentially a private jet flight to the British Open.

Cockadoodledoo-ed my way to a foot of rain.