OceanStWx

There has been a bit of a messenger shuffle in the heaviest QPF this evening when you dprog/dt the HRRR.

Already maxed out at 200 year recurrence interval in Litchfield County on the in-house AWIPS display. MRMS estimating 4.5 inches or so in the last 3 hours, which is between 200 and 500 year average recurrence for that part of CT.

Honestly don't know the specifics of how they craft those forecasts, but generally using a probabilistic approach with models/ensembles. I would hazard a guess that some comparison of QPF to flash flood guidance is used to determine areas most prone to potential flash flooding.

Day 5 slight risk, don't see that too often. Sorry Wiz, that's for rain not storms.

Today was my 4th day without measurable precip this month.

Not for nothing, but the cold weather can keep them in check. And lord knows we haven't had much of that lately.

They taught my kids how to ID them at school so they don't touch. We were playing golf at Belgrade last weekend and he comes running over telling me he found some, and sure enough there were a bunch under the oak trees by the clubhouse.

Nearly combed the Beachcomber.

Never seen one in my backyard, but bring the kids to school 10 min away in Falmouth and their preschool had a bunch in their oaks. So that trace to moderate from Portland to Falmouth lines up. My in laws had a huge problem this year at the lake house. They found the cherry trees on the streets and everyone came home from their first visit with rashes all over. They had the trees removed over a week ago but the suckers were still crawling around last week trying to find a place to settle down. If you are sensitive enough to them and inhale the hairs from a big infestation you can have breathing difficulty. So they warn you not to chuck a fan in the window at night (great news for the AC lovers out there).

Wouldn't be shocked to see something in the lower Hudson into SNE.

There is also a difference between the visible smoke on satellite and the particulate matter that the air quality sensors are measuring. Those particles are pretty small and it may appear clear while still being poor air quality.

I lived in Davenport for 2.5 years, so I believe there are worst places to be.

Something started taking our seedlings a couple years ago, so I built chicken wire cages to go on top of my beds. I'm not even entirely convinced they were eating the plants either. It may have been squirrels digging up buried treasure and overturning my veggies.

The one time it pays to be under the upper low.

We can do gusty outflow just fine with marginal shear profiles. HRRR has been spitting out 50 knot gusts at times since yesterday.

We tried to tell 'em.

I believe the cause in Nova Scotia was human activity like @powderfreak described. The official reporting I've seen from Quebec is that most of the fire starts have been lightning (because there aren't any humans in some of these areas).

Plenty of lightning on the 1st.

MSS visibility under 2 miles in smoke. Impressive.

Some gusty wind/small hailers for Wiz tomorrow? The RAP forecast soundings aren't the worst I've ever seen.

The end is beer?

First 18 of the year in the books. 2 birdies and still shot an 88.

Birds got 'em last year, I built a cage. Frost takes them this year.