OceanStWx

Definitely top 5 worst drive to or from work. I would drive in February 2013 any day of the week vs this crap. A couple points the towns just gave up on treatment and the weight of the car was enough to start sliding off to the side of the convex roads.

I don't know, a Scooter melt sometimes precedes a nice pattern.

I was a tee boy that season. I think Toys-R-Us had a contest and you could run out and grab the tee after the first kick off. I think it was the Browns game I got the honor. It wasn't going to last forever, but I did think Bill would walk away. Even though this was "mutual" I think he got led out the door. I do think the team underestimates what a draw he was. Players whether they liked him or not always viewed him as a lottery ticket to a Super Bowl. With that gone, I don't think people are knocking down the doors to come to Foxboro.

But the tides are also higher. So the forecast is actually very similar to this event's observed levels and potential for even higher.

Still getting damage reports rolling in from the coast, and this is probably the top coastal flood event in my time at GYX. You see the occasional house drop into the ocean down in Mass, but I can't recall that happening up here until today.

Nothing like a kegstand of cherry wheat to jog the snow memories loose.

Live look at Will processing the latest event.

Very similar look to the EFI. Hits all the same spots. This one does look windier on the backside, but no. Nothing I'm more willing to sell than high wind warning from the northwest.

Nah, that's the next one. With the beach defenses blown away from this one, I'm not liking the early forecasts for the weekend.

We’re going to need it. Locking the water table in this high with no storage room in the lakes is definitely elevating the spring flood outlook.

Lost 10” of pack overnight and pulled 3.22” Slushy river running through the backyard drainage.

Never doubted the waters would rip. That 75 mph is a good gust for Conimicut. Must’ve funneled right up the bay. It’s been flashing red light downslope signal for nearly a week. Where’s my DraftKings bet on BTV wind gust > PWM?

Maybe less than that. We're toast at the office now.

Too bad Kevin will be asleep for all of it.

PEO gust to 63 knots. Real man stuff back in CNY.

Well the snow was short lived at home. But the good news is the solar panels shed 16" from the last event.

Don't like that. I do have you down for 6-7, but I need CON to flip otherwise I may need to upgrade.

The HRRR did have 38G65KT for 01z. If I had to pick something to rip and read right now, the HRRR looks fine.

Quick raob check, OKX had 55 knots at 925 mb. Assuming they launched on time around 23z, that's about 5 knots lower than the RAP (which is fed into the HRRR). NAM doesn't have 23z data, but knocking it's 00z forecast down a few knots has it forecasting 925 winds about 10-15 knots too high at this hour (similarly the GFS). Now it could just be a delay in the LLJ, but I think it's more likely the stronger winds are just more elevated than modeled.

I'm almost certainly going to start as snow at my place, but I have zero doubt I'll flip before my shift is up and I can get home an measure.

It was 100 kt on 12/18.

57 anywhere in CT? I would take the over. Up by you I just don't think it will be that high without a serious assist from convection.

Sure, the edge of the 60 kt winds are twice the height by the time you get up to your latitude, but other than that it's the same.

BDL in the summer, ORH in the winter, and ISP on a sou'easter.

I don't have the modeled LLJ for 12/18, but you can see the difference a bit in the EFI product. Remember this product isn't as simple as extreme = big wind, it just means unusual for this time of year. Much bigger CAD signal for this event. Also a much bigger downslope signal. The shift of tails (black lines, and the real indication of the higher end gusts) also are inverted for this event. Instead of values near 1 across the interior to the coast of Maine, they are all focused in the northwest downslope zones. I would be more surprised if GYX pops a 50 kt gusts than BTV.