OceanStWx
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Everything posted by OceanStWx
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Modeling isn't my strong suit at all, so I don't know how they handle this aspect. But if you pull up any upper air map to hand analyze, they are plotted as if they are over the launch site. However we get winds from GPS calculations, so we know where the balloon has been at all times. It is possible they use the lat/lon pair when ingesting it, I just don't know for sure.
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Welp, 12z NAM still insisting on a large area of 925 winds > 90 kt.
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Even raobs aren't infallible, despite being an observation. They are plotted as if they are at a single location, but can be 100s of miles away from the launch site by the time it is sampling important upper level features. I do think there is a weighting system with data assimilation. Like raobs may get more weight than satellite measurements, so while satellite measurements have gotten better there may still be shifts in guidance once the upper air network gets a hold of it.
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50ish is a pretty good middle of the road forecast right now, but I could see it being as high as 65 mph in the PSM area or as low as 40.
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Inland extent is always the hardest forecast, but looking at the forecast soundings you're not out of the game for December of yore sou'easter. The LLJ doesn't really crank until it's passing the tip of the Cape, so I wouldn't be banking on parking your roof in your neighbor's yard, but I could buy an advisory.
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The NBM mean wind gust at RKD is 70 mph with a standard deviation range of 60-80 mph. Overnight model runs really amped the wind threat up from when I left yesterday afternoon.
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LOL That's the wildest 925 mb wind run I've seen in a while.
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Yeah, it's right there with the 500 jet.
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Places like CON really show the uncertainty. Bufkit says the NAM snows about 4.5 inches (compacts down to around 3), but for most of that time especially Sunday the snow growth zone isn't saturated. Hard to believe daytime snowfall accumulating in an environment like that.
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I really like the look of the Euro/NAM postive snow depth change maps, which of course put it right on the razor's edge of warning for many.
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I could see a scenario where the first wave kind of warms over the air mass and the second, snowier wave struggles to accumulate if the rates aren't there.
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We've established that something is going to happen now, but the two part wave brings a whole bunch more uncertainty into play.
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Even up here the coast seems like it's tough shape given current ensembles. There is some mean snowfall, but the 50th percentiles are all snowless along the coast suggesting some big members are dragging that mean up. But the cluster that features a little pump up ridge ahead of the wave are the ones that are snowier.
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Friday night looks great.
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Sometimes these biases can be legit, if there has been some kind of use change near the ASOS/AWOS. I remember several years back CON had started running warm, and we found out that they had ditched grass in favor of rocks around the ASOS to make landscaping easier. I think we ended up putting astroturf down.
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I think we can manually edit the naming convention in the system, but man it picks some random location identifiers sometimes. Like IOSN3 always defaults to 4 ESE of Rye, like just call it Isles of Shoals. And no location ever carries elevation, all that has to be added. What I don't know is if it has to be added each time, or if certain locations can be saved.
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There's definitely a hint in the hi-res models of some latent cooling just ahead of the low center. Temps tickle down a few degrees without any CAA. Probably good news for Sunday River and the Loaf.
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CAD is lacking, but a blue bomb is not out of the question. Even some valley locations are close. Bufkit for places like LEB and HIE have some hours of isothermal paste that's like 2"/hr. Might be a little too torchy for the Monadnocks, but farther north could be a 1000-1500 ft birch bender.
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I mean they aren't even the same budget bins, so it's not like it could be used either way. NCEI is in NESDIS and repairs come out of the NWS budget. The bigger problem is that we can't get a full budget passed, and so continuing resolutions default to previous funding levels. So even under normal inflation our budget doesn't keep up, and the first and foremost thing to pay for is manpower and keeping the lights on. So repair work gets tighter and tighter, model development work suffers, etc.
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Sneaky little system Mon. Quickly developing low kind of cuts off the LLJ for GYX, but HRRR is developing a little stinger that may clip the Cape. And Downeast should rock, might even be trying to model some gravity waves in there.
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We're one Sandy away from a regional mesonet!
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It's pretty comical how thin the supplies are sometimes. Like the whole radar service life extension program (SLEP). We had like two extra pedestals for the whole country, so we leapfrogged teams around the nation refurbishing. Give CAR the spare pedestal, refurbish theirs, give it to GYX, refurbish GYX's old pedestal, give it to BTV, etc.
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Well there are more sources than just NWS CLI sites. And even dozens of climate sites running warm or cold will be washed out by the shear number of observations (plus you have some ASOSs running warm, others running cold also washing out).
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Not if you like Morch and 50% of your seasonal snow before Thanksgiving.
