Jump to content

OceanStWx

Meteorologist
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    20,063

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by OceanStWx

  1. OceanStWx
    That's how you end up with another kid.
  2. OceanStWx
    There is a huge slug of 700 mb WAA induced f-gen (NAM slightly farther north than GFS/Euro) so I don't see how there isn't a nice dump somewhere over the southern half of NH.
  3. OceanStWx
    I believe the HRRR is still using the Thompson microphysics scheme for ptype. So it basically is taking a fraction of snow to all accumulated precip that hour and then looking at surface temp for rain vs freezing rain. In this case, I would guess that there is minimal or no snow, so the ptype kicks it over to liquid and because it's below freezing it spits out FZRA.
  4. OceanStWx
    It should bang 1"/hr before the DGZ dries out, but I'm always more inclined to go snizzle in the dry slot than FZDZ.
  5. OceanStWx
    I wonder if that's the HRRR trying to do FZDZ for ptype.
  6. OceanStWx
    I could buy the double banded look to the jackpots. The HRRR and 12km NAM both kind of have it that way.
  7. OceanStWx
    I mean to the extent we can, yes. We're briefing partners about more snow and our long range messaging has it, but we won't be doing QPF for that event for a couple days.
  8. OceanStWx
    I'm on board with 1/hr for SNE, but ratios look pretty climo to me. It's the dendy band that may be pure air.
  9. OceanStWx
    I wouldn't say SLR will be poor, but I wouldn't be banking prolific for most of SNE. Maybe 10ish:1 PVD to BDL, 10-15:1 around ORH, and once you get up into NH there is some potential for a 300 mb deep DGZ and SLRs could be tickling 20:1.
  10. OceanStWx
    BOS has a meaty 50% of the ensemble members between 4 and 6 inches. Only 14% less than 4. Nice long tail on the high side.
  11. OceanStWx
    12km has a nice WAA band at 700 mb nuzzling up to @dendrite, so I'm automatically inclined to believe it.
  12. OceanStWx
    There's definitely a large "AI will solve everything" contingent that has arrived in government, so if you like your forecast with 6 fingers on each hand do I have good news for you!
  13. OceanStWx
  14. OceanStWx
    I don't know what these maps are doing anymore. They are relying primarily on WPC data, but also include snow from today. I think it still uses the local forecast, but I'm not not sure to what extent.
  15. OceanStWx
  16. OceanStWx
    To congratulate @dendrite!
  17. OceanStWx
    Only 96% off if you want to be literal, but there are things that go into the HREF that are part of their super ensemble. For reference, inside 3 days you get the Euro op and 25 ensemble members, the GFS op, GEFS mean, and 10 GEFS members, 10 GEPS members, a SREF mean, and then some combination of the HRRR, NAM, FV3, NMMB, ARW as available.
  18. OceanStWx
    Don't let Kevin know that every max expected amount map he posts from BOX uses WPC.
  19. OceanStWx
    That's a pretty strong ensemble signal for 7 days out. Normally you see a little more spread on timing, but every member is generally within the same 24 hour window.
  20. OceanStWx
    I would say that's pretty much normal for the first two weeks of February to be the snowiest of winter.
  21. OceanStWx
    It's the hope that kills you.
  22. OceanStWx
    Another 2.5" bringing the pack up to 8". Looks like proper winter out there.
  23. OceanStWx
    WAA will get stronger as it approaches, so there is still some radar to fill in.
  24. OceanStWx
    I have no information to back this up, but I don't know if it is something to do with MOS being wound down. Are the bothering to develop/maintain it when the NBM MOS is going to become the new standard.
  25. OceanStWx
    Last night's results are in The PFM is our Point Forecast Matrix that falls directly out of the forecast grids. We run this verification twice a day to capture highs and lows, and typically over 100 absolute bias degrees is not great. Always fun to curb stomp MOS.
×
×
  • Create New...