OceanStWx

It's important to look at these panels like Ginxy has here. The ensemble means may look nice, but don't tell the whole story. Like for Mount Tolland for instance, the EPS mean is about 5.5 inches. But the 25th/75th range is 1.5 to 8.5 inches. So some bigger members are dragging the mean up, while the floor still remains quite low. When you can start setting the floor higher, that's when you can start honking for a storm.

Was that why we stopped having GTGs?

Two maybe three chances for at least 3-6" for many by the middle of the month? That's pretty much average for an entire month right there.

I think they have some select locations available for free from the EC site. May be garbage graphics though.

He could learn a thing or two from Kev. Just double down on your next call.

Yeah, there are plenty of ways to salvage 1/10 up here. If we have snow on the ground after 1/7, I wouldn't be calling for a total pack reset on 1/10.

Don't really have the players on the field for another 36-48 hours. But I would start to feel more confident around that time.

The clusters with the sharpest shortwaves are definitely the whitest ones for the region. Driest cluster is more of a Southeast ridge looks with trof in Canada, so it just goes through the meat grinder.

You can already see the CAD on that weenie Euro gust forecast. Instead of 60+ mph through interior Maine it's already forecasting 40s in a CAD shape. Not hard to sell that right now.

The EFI looks at the 5 week window centered on the forecast period and compares model climate to ensemble distribution. The more ensembles higher or lower than the m-climate the higher or lower EFI will be. Irrespective of sign, EFI closer to 1 is more unusual. Shift of tails looks at the top 10% of ensemble members. The more extreme those members, the higher the shift of tails will be. That can clue you in to just how big the potential is with certain events.

The Euro EFI stuff can help with that too. The shift of tails shows you what the outliers at the top end are saying, but the shading tells you where the meat of the ensemble is.

Right on time to set everyone's expectations unreasonably high.

But how much snow?

DESI tossing out 4 clusters, but there are two dominant ones accounting for 64% of ensemble members. More or less varying degrees of amplification. But the snowier solutions are more amplified trof. The more you lower heights locally, he snowier the outcomes. Which is a pretty wild difference when you think about it. Some clusters feature a ridge overhead 08.00z, vs other clusters featuring a trof. So nothing is locked.

Just some ?

High stakes. Can't wait for Dendrite to steal all the snow.

Compare BOS to MSP for the upcoming stretch. You can see at least three windows at BOS where QPF is clustered closer in timing (that signal at 300+ hours is actually pretty strong given the natural increasing uncertainty at that forecast range). If you squint at MSP you can see maybe one window of tighter clustering in time. You can also see the whiff potential in the BOS plot. Those gaps of no QPF in the first window show members that are fish storms. Of course this is just QPF, so a cutter can still have a great signal but a poor result for the weenies.

I would actually say the signal may be even stronger for 1/10. Ensembles for BOS are pretty tight clustering in timing for 1/7 and 1/10, lesser so for the next one after that. But it's definitely a strong QPF signal for an active stretch. Usually those 24 hr QPF meteograms look like a shotgun spray, but these all have well defined windows for QPF, which is a higher confidence signal.

"may be" "could" "assuming enough" La la lock it in...

Yeah, the tide was a couple hours earlier down there and overlapped the winds better. 4-5 ft surge is impressive.

We actually ended up not even flooding at PWM. A few vulnerable coastal spots did, but otherwise it was NBD on the coastal flooding up here. So if anything we hyped that too much. I think the timing of the tide and worst winds didn't overlap like forecasts showed 24 hours earlier. This was my Sunday evening update that expanded the high wind warning. I'm not upset with it at all. 50 mph all the way to Sugarloaf? That's going to do some damage.

You're proving my point. This isn't widespread. Criehaven is a rock in the middle of the Gulf of Maine. It was a good wind event and high impact, but I don't believe the impacts came from the magnitude of the wind gusts. I think it was the duration of the wind gusts and antecedent conditions that made this one of the record books.

I think it was a pretty normal wind event from a magnitude perspective, which is how the utilities prepare. Everything is based on wind speeds and time of year (relative to leaves). The high impacts I think came from a longer duration 50+ mph from a classically damaging direction and over a large area. In your dreams? I just don't see evidence that 60+ was that widespread. But the inland penetration of 50+ mph winds was pretty expansive.

I think that's just CMP.