OceanStWx

Why are you reposting your wedding vows here?

Yes that makes sense, they're using Bourgouin, so if the initial phase was ZR (drizzle most likely) and S there is enough negative area to refreeze the ZR to PL.

Without digging into it, my best guess is perhaps ptype is based on thickness. You could conceivably have thicknesses that are equivalent of having a layer above freezing without actually being above freezing (if they sounding was close enough to 0C over a large enough layer).

My freshmen year we did top 100" but I think 30-35% of that fell on winter break when nobody was around to see it. Just came back to crusty banks and bitter cold. The Finger Lake effect was always fun because a 5 degree wind direction difference meant it was over the Cornell coop site, which was how we verified the forecast contest.

Since technically winter starts tomorrow, I'm running through my fall training on a quiet day. We're actually getting better at providing shorter, hyper-focused training modules rather than the longer, more comprehensive ones of the past. Some good NBM stuff in GYX's assigned training this year. It's a good reminder to myself that any deterministic NBM product is expert weighted (i.e. based on verification). Any probabilistic product is equally weighted, and therefore model biases can affect the forecast. For instance, Kuchera is one of the prominent snow ratios used (as much as 50% in some cases), usually in combination with Cobb and thickness. So certain events with a cold snow, the higher percentiles of the NBM may be biases high thanks to the incorporation of Kuchera ratios.

The day 6 GFS blizzard once it gets to day 2: "Now you see it, now you don't motherfucker"

My wife had a bit of melting too, when the power went out at her parents' and they found out that the propane company had skipped their last delivery and the generator didn't run.

Strongest lift now for NH (arriving shortly in ME) with overlapping 250 mb divergence and 850 convergence. A few hours left to pound I would think before any dry slotting.

I don't know, 4" of the sloppy stuff seems to be the magic number for outages. I would think NH is about to see an uptick shortly.

Got the bird in the oven and the WFO's backup generator in case Ekster hydroplanes into a telephone pole on the way into work.

Crank the oven up to 500 and get that turkey done.

Now it's over some guy named George who owns a bank.

I'm not in love with models closing the 700 mb low so far inland, that's usually a good proxy for the dry slot track. GFS is most aggressive in deepening the mid levels, so that explains why it is so robust on snowfall across the southern edge of the snow gradient.

Easy to find the grid for Winni.

I'm not sure we would be discussing it much at the WFO except for the fact that it will be a high travel day plus all of our partners are going home Wednesday and we effectively lose a day of communication there.

Oh definitely not SNE. I would amend my previous post to say north of the Pike.

Good luck with what? All I'm saying is that it is pretty unique that all the clusters' high end goalposts are decent events. Usually there is a total rat in there. I'm still trying to tease out reasoning, but to me that suggests that timing is more of a factor in producing snow than amplification with this system. Aside from holiday travel aspect, I'm pretty skeptical still.

Interesting system for the cluster analysis. There are definitely clusters (the flatter ones) that have lower mean snowfall, but all of the clusters have a solid 90th percentile event. So even the upper end of the flat members can produce a good low end warning event.

Definitely going to have synoptic forcing there, but my gut feeling is that these were more waterspouts moving onshore vs supercells.

I need to go back and try and case study that one (much harder with ::gulp:: data 20 years old), but IWI started the day with 1/4 +SN and ended up with tornadoes not too far away after climbing to near 45 degrees. Must've been warmer on the other side of the warm front too. Buoy water temp at the LNB was like 47 too, so probably had really steep lapse rates from the water to the 3 km level.

The November record will get there eventually. We tied the previous record of 74 in 2020, and then broke it in 2022 (75).

PWM could break the all time Novie high on Friday. Let's do it!

As an addendum, almost all the articles I've read have stated the FAA is opting for some sort of automated computer based software for in route weather decision making, but none of the articles describe what that is. I would have a hard time believing there is computer software at this time that can make decisions about air traffic routing, but dumping people in favor of a computer would certainly save money.

Very much in flux at the moment. Essentially the FAA pays the NWS for roughly 90 mets to staff CWSUs to handle IN FLIGHT forecasts (local WFOs handle the takeoff/landing forecasts). The FAA has been looking to cut costs for years and the CWSUs always seem to be on the chopping block. It appears this time they really tried to make the clean break, but there is plenty of negotiating going on behind the scenes. Local WFOs are not equipped or staffed to be able to handle briefing the FAA on demand, so that's not going to be the solution. Either they come up with a new agreement (maybe reduced staffing?) or they'll contract that forecast out to a company like Scott's. But the key is that they need some centralized entity to collaborate with the FAA. Because it's not just about the in route forecast, it's maintaining "gates" for flights to fly through on the way to the airport. You can't have Southwest and Delta winging it around thunderstorms, you need to the FAA to tell them which heading and what flight level to maintain so you don't have collisions.