OceanStWx

Still getting damage reports rolling in from the coast, and this is probably the top coastal flood event in my time at GYX. You see the occasional house drop into the ocean down in Mass, but I can't recall that happening up here until today.

Nothing like a kegstand of cherry wheat to jog the snow memories loose.

Live look at Will processing the latest event.

Very similar look to the EFI. Hits all the same spots. This one does look windier on the backside, but no. Nothing I'm more willing to sell than high wind warning from the northwest.

Nah, that's the next one. With the beach defenses blown away from this one, I'm not liking the early forecasts for the weekend.

We’re going to need it. Locking the water table in this high with no storage room in the lakes is definitely elevating the spring flood outlook.

Lost 10” of pack overnight and pulled 3.22” Slushy river running through the backyard drainage.

Never doubted the waters would rip. That 75 mph is a good gust for Conimicut. Must’ve funneled right up the bay. It’s been flashing red light downslope signal for nearly a week. Where’s my DraftKings bet on BTV wind gust > PWM?

Maybe less than that. We're toast at the office now.

Too bad Kevin will be asleep for all of it.

PEO gust to 63 knots. Real man stuff back in CNY.

Well the snow was short lived at home. But the good news is the solar panels shed 16" from the last event.

Don't like that. I do have you down for 6-7, but I need CON to flip otherwise I may need to upgrade.

The HRRR did have 38G65KT for 01z. If I had to pick something to rip and read right now, the HRRR looks fine.

Quick raob check, OKX had 55 knots at 925 mb. Assuming they launched on time around 23z, that's about 5 knots lower than the RAP (which is fed into the HRRR). NAM doesn't have 23z data, but knocking it's 00z forecast down a few knots has it forecasting 925 winds about 10-15 knots too high at this hour (similarly the GFS). Now it could just be a delay in the LLJ, but I think it's more likely the stronger winds are just more elevated than modeled.

I'm almost certainly going to start as snow at my place, but I have zero doubt I'll flip before my shift is up and I can get home an measure.

It was 100 kt on 12/18.

57 anywhere in CT? I would take the over. Up by you I just don't think it will be that high without a serious assist from convection.

Sure, the edge of the 60 kt winds are twice the height by the time you get up to your latitude, but other than that it's the same.

BDL in the summer, ORH in the winter, and ISP on a sou'easter.

I don't have the modeled LLJ for 12/18, but you can see the difference a bit in the EFI product. Remember this product isn't as simple as extreme = big wind, it just means unusual for this time of year. Much bigger CAD signal for this event. Also a much bigger downslope signal. The shift of tails (black lines, and the real indication of the higher end gusts) also are inverted for this event. Instead of values near 1 across the interior to the coast of Maine, they are all focused in the northwest downslope zones. I would be more surprised if GYX pops a 50 kt gusts than BTV.

Started as plain rain and your 60 kt gusts are going to bust. Tough day.

I'm just not as impressed as 12/18. The LLJ is weaker around here and there is plenty of snow/CAD. I'm more in the strong advisory (weak warning at the coast) camp.

Well some people believe that if you don't observe it, did it really happen.

Actually may be a better event for Kuchera.