OceanStWx

I’m not sure what we were doing with the start time. Didn’t our warning start at 4 AM?

Get the man a Treehouse.

I would avoid the eggs of whichever one is following the GFS.

Do each of the chickens have their favorite?

HREF 700 mb evolution is pretty sweet. I don’t hate it.

More of an NCAR ensemble replacement

Also, that range and local lolli is an average of the whole WSW segment. So it could be all of NH for all I know.

There’s always a bit of a caution flag, because models do a pretty poor job of handling ridge building ahead of East Coast cyclogenesis. It’s why the NW trend sometimes seems like it won’t be denied.

I wish more model sites had it period. At least CoD has 850 f-gen.

As long as things aren’t completely stacked, everything should slope towards the cold side. So the f-gen forces the lift, which will be just on the cold side of the front. But some of the surface charts looked a little inverted trough-like. There could be some more energy left to play into this.

Yeah those are based off the model blend. But big caveats because it includes the SREF, randomly selected EPS, etc.

Well not all CDFs look like a perfect bell curve like I described. Some have a big low end tail, but a sharp high end. Sometimes all models say rain and there is no CDF to work off of. It’s definitely not a fool proof system, but it can provide some windows into the guidance. It works best for large, widespread snow events.

Right. The only “setting” we do is by moving our expected amount. If the CDF has a 12” range, and our expected was 8”, the max/min would be something like 2-14”. If we then decide to increase snow amounts to 11”, that max/min becomes something like 5-17”

The basic premise is we create a snowfall forecast. WPC has an “ensemble” that is a blend of many models. From that blend they develop a cumulative density function that is the total range of snowfall amounts. Our forecast becomes the center of that CDF. And the 10/90th percentiles of that CDF are the maps you see. So if we shift the forecast, that shifts the 10/90th percentiles.

It’s a combination of all guidance (some good, some bad). So it incorporates all whiffs, amped runs that rain on the Cape. So one way to look at it is this is showing is the highest confidence for significant amounts of snow is that 6” area. Basically that’s their high floor.

I think the bright lights they usually reference as Whitefield.

I saw this one from IA. The DVN radar even picked up fragments of the trail on one elevated scan (lucky considering the volume scan in clear air takes about 10 minutes). https://www.space.com/8243-meteor-fragment-wisconsin-fireball-discovered-farmer.html

Nice, pics or it didn't happen! That looks like a pretty legit 20+ though.

Lots of telegraph wires down.

Grandpa Wood measuring snow in backyard drifts, where the people live, not some wind swept train station.

He does note it fell over the night of the 12th, but I'm more concerned with the 1.35" turning into 34" of snow. That's awfully dry for 32 SN.

30" also reported in Newport, over 20" at Pinkham, Keene, West Leb, Hanover, Plymouth. So probably a great-great grandfather slant sticking, but I'd say plausible.

PWM had 2.32 liquid, and 11.4" so it's not insane I guess.

PWM has reports from the Jetport since 1931 ('31-'40 overlapped with Exchange Street downtown to verify consistency). 1940 officially moved to the Jetport, and moved twice with the terminal building, once in 1940 and again in 1988, then automation began in 1994 when we moved to GYX. The Jetport itself is pretty susceptible to west winds for blowing/drifting. I can't seem to find the info prior to 2010, but the current snow observer is 2 miles NE of PWM (Deering neighborhood). It's not the best snow location in the sense of obstructions, not like Winthrop sticking out into Boston Harbor.

They also had snow up to knicker levels in Feb 1894, 45" for three days after Valentine's Day. Started the month with 23" OTG and packed on another 24.9" to reach 45". Records do look a little sketchy at that time, just add new snow to current snow depth to get new snow depth. There's also Feb 1983 that hit 40 and 41" within a couple days of each other late in the month. But 1970 looks like the first modern era 40" snow depth.