OceanStWx

I think my favorite man-snow event was 12/30/16. Looked like someone nuked the suburbs north of Portland. I did the drive home at midnight from GYX, and the scenes looked like this except pitch black with no power.

The undercast with the snow-caked trees is what really puts these last couple of days over the top.

That's a key point. For the vast majority of CT, it was pretty meh. And for the next EML those towns may say mets always blow it out of proportion. In addition to the general knowledge of severe weather in the Plains, they also have the frequency. So while in any one event it's unlikely your backyard will be hit by a storm, over the course of a year there is a relatively high chance. People that experienced the severe weather Tuesday are unlikely to forget it, but it's still a tiny percentage of the state. And that's not even counting the parts of MA and RI that were also included in the watch.

Actually LCLs weren't especially favorable Tuesday, but were trending towards 1000 m in the valley. Similarly, LCLs were > 1000 m on 6/1/11 in western NE but 750 m east of ORH. So the supercells were heading into a better environment.

Really at that point, you just throw your hands up and say "tornado-like winds." I always say during spotter training that you won't care whether the 100 mph winds were rotating when they hit your house.

Because conditions were more akin to Plains severe weather than New England? But tornadogenesis did occur once that supercell hit the CT River Valley. A large area of research right now is on what determines whether a supercell can sustain a long tracked tornado like 2011, vs one that doesn't produce or produces brief tornadoes. The prevailing theory is RFD temp, but it's ongoing research at the moment. But basically a colder RFD will tend to rush out and overwhelm any low level tornadic circulation, vs a warmer RFD that can become buoyant again and sustain a tornado.

Legit meso there.

The terrain is such a big factor in New England. Most tornadoes in our forecast area end up occurring on or near lakes, in these N/S or NW/SE oriented valleys.

If they thought there was evidence of a tornado, they would've checked it out. What was likely occurring with these tornadoes was a cycle of RFDs. RFD would would develop, spin up a brief tornado, then the RFD would overwhelm the circulation and create a large swath of straight line wind damage. Then the process would start again.

I'm not sure what's wrong, the confirmed a single macroburst that occurred across two towns. Doesn't seem like they skipped it, or lumped it in. It's one event.

My personal feeling is that we should be getting out there to survey big time straight line wind damage too, because it's nice to let the public know we're there and we care.

That happens sometimes too, when it's nearly certain that it isn't tornadic winds.

This could also be a muti-day effort. There are only so many people the office can spare to do storm damage surveys. And it's kind of a haul for OKX to get to CT.

We can only hope.

That dude is a huge

Like check the ABQ 12z sounding from today. What we would consider the EML is actually just their mixed layer from the day before. Gradually that moves east, and as elevation drops it gets higher in the atmosphere. And convective overturning dissipates the magnitude some as well. Obviously the deeper the EML the better for the Northeast, but yes, you could see a chunk only 100 mb deep leftover by the time it reaches here (which gets very hard to ID as remnant EML).

And I know 700-500 mb is what we look at, but oftentimes it's just having some layer within the sounding of steep lapse rates. Because an EML plume begins as surface based out on the High Plains, and gradually becomes more elevated as it moves east, as elevation drops towards sea level. On 14.12z sounding out around IA, the base of that EML was more like 800 mb, or even 850 mb. So sometimes it doesn't quite line up with our conventions.

To my eye that looks like a wall cloud, with an inflow tail hanging down to the right. The inflow tail forms lower to the ground in response to the fact that the wall cloud/inflow to the storm is ingesting forward flank (cooler/moist) air on that side that has a lower LCL.

Looks like near Winni in '95, eh @CoastalWx

Yeah my gut is one or two tornadoes there near Newtown, but the vast majority will be a big swath of RFD damage from eastern NY through Danbury. That had the look of a High Plains hail monster with 80 mph driven stones.

That’s actually pretty wild damage. You don’t see a lot of wind driven hail damage in New England.

It’s not a model but a type of model. One that doesn’t parameterize convection. So HRRR, ARW, NMM, Nested NAM, etc

Yeah for those who don’t know: CAM = convection allowing model LEWP = line echo wave pattern, similar to QLCS (quasi linear convective system)

Stay safe.

Tracking severe in New England is a bit of S&M.