OceanStWx

Dews in the 60s FTL

Merry Christmas from the hill at NWS Gray, make sure you leave cookies and milk for the mets working overnights.

That will be far more useful for valley fog type events (assuming you select a valley location Bufkit site) vs model probabilities for low VIS that can't resolve the valley in enough detail.

You're looking at two different things there. The XOver is using the UPS crossover technique, where if your temps fall below the minimum dewpoint for the day fog is more likely. The MRi is modified Richardson number (think mechanical mixing). If it is high enough the atmosphere is stable, if it is low or negative the atmosphere is too unstable and wind will likely mix fog out.

https://training.weather.gov/wdtd/tools/BUFKIT/training/UB_Fog/UB_Fog.html

HRRR has probabilities of certain VIS, same with SREF. Otherwise you're probably limited to looking at forecast soundings.

They should be able to go even farther back than that, because it's just the GFS model data for the specified level.

Will would recognize that as sort of what Wilks used to do with the Cornell forecast contest. Rather than forecast a single QPF amount, you forecast a range of totals. The wider the range the more like you are to hit, but the smaller your potential score. The narrower the range the more likely you were to miss, but the higher potential score.

So similarly to the NWS spring forecast contest (choosing severe weather type and location), they are debuting a winter forecast contest (mid Jan through the end of March). What is interesting about this contest is it will be much more probabilistic. You will forecast the mode of the snowfall (most likely forecast), then adjust the 10th/90th percentile tails. Your score will be proportional to the likelihood of the observed snowfall to that curve you create. For instance, if you forecast a mode of 12" and the 90th percentile is 13", and you get 14" your curve probably predicts a very low likelihood of that happening (single digit % chance). If you really thought 12" was most likely, your 90th percentile tail should be out near say 20". This is a pretty common "failure" of the current NWS snow probabilities.

Took the baby out for a walk yesterday with temps in the upper 30s. Felt great.

I don't know, this sucker was headed right for the Gulf Stream.

He actually caught the glow and thought he forgot to turn off the Christmas lights.

Hmm, Matip broke his collarbone at the final whistle yesterday (I thought he looked seriously hurt after going for that header). That leaves them with just Van Dijk and Lovren now at centerback. Holiday schedule is going to be a grind now.

Really bringing a calming presence to the back line.

Nice result yesterday at Anfield.

This was long enough (3ish seconds) that had I not been driving I probably could've snapped something. But I missed half of it because it was above and behind me. What I clearly noticed was how it lit up the sky. Like lightning flash brightness, but constant, then it flickered and I realized what must be going on.

Local celeb... https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2018/12/12/fireball-lights-night-sky-over-new-england/0cD3j7QBGY8lCjAan4LyYM/story.html

Breakwater webcam looks like it's snowing pretty good currently. Vinalhaven definitely could be in line for a near-advisory event.

Could be a nice little event from RKD out into the bay. Matinicus FTW?

Hmm, if it's snowing then the clouds are too small for even the new satellite to see. Even MWN is 130 miles and clear. But it's also below zero up there so maybe some IC developing.

Might be blowing off your roof. CAVU here tonight.

Yeah, we're officially in the snow growth zone here at GYX...

And I thought NH didn't have a state tax.

Well the door there is up a few steps from ground level, and the snow looks to be at least up to the top of the yellow "carry in, carry out" sign. The door knob would be about the height of that yellow sign if it were not for the steps. Standard door knob height is about 40" That matches our reports from Hermit Lake in the base of Tuckerman Ravine, 45" at 3900 feet.

Those numbers are mb values. More or less it's the thickness of the layer Bufkit will look at to determine whether winds will mix down through. So one a setting of 1 mb, you only need a layer 1 mb thick that deviates significantly from dry adiabatic for Bufkit to rule out gusts mixing down through that layer. Training recommends 10 mb as a good operational threshold. At EWR specifically it is seeing a small (at least 1 mb) inversion near the surface and so not mixing any winds down through that. But if you raise the threshold to 10 mb, the wind is easily able to mix through that shallow inversion.