OceanStWx

Maybe a TDS near Shirley, MA? Sure looks right at 1057z.

I'll say without any knowledge of the air mass, the radar velocity sure looks like a tropical cyclone feeder band.

Kudos to the BOX techs who got the call around 2 AM that the radar went down, and currently have it back up and running.

Nah, I just hit send before I saw we were splitting it out. I wanted to make sure it was included here too.

Just added this thought in the other thread before this was created.

Big difference between last week and this upcoming event. Last week had low level winds intersecting the boundary, creating a more widespread rainfall pattern. Tomorrow the low level winds parallel the boundary, which will be a recipe for narrow but potentially significant rainfall distribution.

Some models are quicker than others, but essentially the back edge of that forcing is forecast to only reach BDL by 12z. So there's a lot of potential time for storms to back build.

There's a PWS right near that that did like 6 inches in 4 hours. That's pretty close to a 1000 yr return period.

That's actually showing the progression of the forecast for today's threat. From slight to moderate.

Data on that only goes back to 2019, but just the one high risk for New England. Until tomorrow.

Your wagon has tipped over while fording the river. You lose 500 bullets, and 200 pounds of food.

I think BOX might be running hot there, but GYX is way too low too. ENX is probably a decent compromise around 4.5 to 5 inches so far. Nice 500 year event.

There has been a bit of a messenger shuffle in the heaviest QPF this evening when you dprog/dt the HRRR.

Already maxed out at 200 year recurrence interval in Litchfield County on the in-house AWIPS display. MRMS estimating 4.5 inches or so in the last 3 hours, which is between 200 and 500 year average recurrence for that part of CT.

Honestly don't know the specifics of how they craft those forecasts, but generally using a probabilistic approach with models/ensembles. I would hazard a guess that some comparison of QPF to flash flood guidance is used to determine areas most prone to potential flash flooding.

Day 5 slight risk, don't see that too often. Sorry Wiz, that's for rain not storms.

Today was my 4th day without measurable precip this month.

Not for nothing, but the cold weather can keep them in check. And lord knows we haven't had much of that lately.

They taught my kids how to ID them at school so they don't touch. We were playing golf at Belgrade last weekend and he comes running over telling me he found some, and sure enough there were a bunch under the oak trees by the clubhouse.

Nearly combed the Beachcomber.

Never seen one in my backyard, but bring the kids to school 10 min away in Falmouth and their preschool had a bunch in their oaks. So that trace to moderate from Portland to Falmouth lines up. My in laws had a huge problem this year at the lake house. They found the cherry trees on the streets and everyone came home from their first visit with rashes all over. They had the trees removed over a week ago but the suckers were still crawling around last week trying to find a place to settle down. If you are sensitive enough to them and inhale the hairs from a big infestation you can have breathing difficulty. So they warn you not to chuck a fan in the window at night (great news for the AC lovers out there).