OceanStWx

Maybe if you stack two squalls on top of each other.

It's showing a measure of instability in saturated air. Theta-e tells you that a moist parcel will stay warmer as it rises due to latent heat of condensation. So if you have a higher value at the surface and lift it, and a lower value aloft but also lift it, the surface parcel will remain warmer and continue to accelerate.

Subtle, but it also has your theta-e lapse rate going negative.

Technically the squalls are back in the Whites still. They may still deliver meh to the local area, but we have maybe an hour or so before we can call that.

I mean PWM is +1.9 and +2.96" That's usually not a bad recipe for more than 15.3" IMBY. It's climo coldest time of the year.

Shortly, since we had snow forecast for tonight the map is currently showing that accumulation.

Sir, sir, you can't take your pants off at the table.

Yeah, I mean ratio forecasting is complicated (and the NWS is doing it now, but I can almost guarantee we suck at it). At a minimum a deep DGZ with collocated lift will generate dendrites. But wind fracturing can have large impacts. Low level RH can be a huge driver of what happens to those crystals as they fall (e.g. a little dry air causes sublimation that turns crystals into a more dense ratio).

This definitely is not some kind of new normal. Even the most generous attribution study wouldn't explain more than +/-20% of event to seasonal duration snowfalls. We're talking less than a foot of snow for any of the big 4.

I've visited twice in the last year, and saw nothing out of the ordinary for a city. I see way more homelessness in Portland (ME) than I did there. Though my sister, who lives there, does say that a few neighborhoods are worse than others (e.g. Mission District). As for midweek, the NAEFS ensemble uncertainty points towards most of the variance being in the strength of secondary low pressure over New England. Kick the ridge out west up a bit tomorrow, and give that TPV intrusion more room to dig and get a stronger, farther south secondary.

Cheap midnight high Tuesday in the teens below zero.

That's not really how it works though. Even over a seasonal time scale snowfall is like throwing dice. It's still plenty cold enough to snow in New England (and points south) but sometimes the numbers don't come up in our favor. Climate change will, over time, load those dice so that southern areas are more prone to the dice not coming up in their favor. Could climate change make gradient winter's snowfall move north, sure, but that doesn't mean you always shift gradient patterns north from now on.

This is for LEB, but you can see a sharp front moving in during the late afternoon/evening hours, strong lift along and above it in a saturated DGZ. A little CAPE to boot. Probably going to be some cracks of thunder in the strongest squalls.

It's a solid line from YUL to DCA (of course it's only cold enough for snow south to about TEB).

HRRR is one helluva snow squall along the front tomorrow.

I think if your methodology is solid you'll have success more often than not. Does it mean you'll be right 100% of the time? No, but that doesn't make it voodoo in my opinion.

Um, I cheer on a March 2012 every year.

I'm not sure what BOX is going to do there. They are kind of hemmed in. That's their official observer, but it's probably not even representative of Logan. We have some recourse to correct or estimate things (like we did with CON temps around Thanksgiving), but when you are paying an observer and have actual observations (however bad) I'm not sure what we can do.

I was sleeping when you sent this out, but our morning sounding is verifying like 6,000 feet deep (700 mb is like -1C) and I would say we're probably in the heart of the CAD.

Totally. A good tool will be matching modeled temps aloft with upstream CC from radars.

Your backyard may see a little more ice that previously thought. I still think you don't crack freezing, but the warmer models aloft do allow for full melting for a time Sunday morning. Maybe you pull advisory snow on the front side, followed by sleet and freezing rain. Maybe if you're lucky you grab a third of an inch ice.

Pants optional at work tonight.

Convection from PAH to BRO. That shouldn't be a problem at all for modeling. The good news is that it's a north/south line, so moisture transport shouldn't be a problem.