OceanStWx

Still have about 1 in 3 EPS members with the banana high. A little more than 1 in 5 stemwinders, and the rest in between.

Because of the shutdown it's possible our NWS snowfall contest and severe contest bleed into each other in April.

59.8" for CAR in January alone (record for the month). Fell 0.1" short of tying Dec 1972 for snowiest month.

a) Is definitely part of the emerging science. The future would be satellites that can do soundings. We're already part of the way there with GOES-16/17. They have 3 different WV channels to sample moisture at roughly 700, 500, 300 mb. b) Is definitely a source of potential errors. Convection is always a problem, but NWP has come a long way from having convective feedback that early in the cycle. It wasn't that long ago when by hour 6 a nocturnal MCS could already be running wild through the GFS. It goes to show you how much work the GEFS need though. Realistically there shouldn't be such wild swings from 00z to 06z, given it's the same base set of data. I'll be curious to see if the EPS 06/18z runs show as much volatility, but as of yet I don't have access to them.

That's pretty much correct. The 06/18z runs start at the 6 hour forecast from 00/12z. The difference now is that there is a wealth of new data to assimilate into the 6 hour forecast (and model 6 hour forecasts are much better than they were even 10 years ago). The reality is the 00/12z are also a forecast of 0 hour conditions from the model, and adjusted the same way with real observations. So the difference is really only slightly older forecast data, and many fewer balloons (but satellite input far outnumbers balloon data anyway).

Tough to blend when the models bifurcate like that. Typically one is going to be right, the other wrong.

Man, I saw that. I remember right before I left we had a nice Arctic blast and we were forecasting -28 at MLI. Our MIC and an el tech went to the airport with a back up to make sure the ASOS was accurate. "Only" got to -27 that time. They are definitely well situated in the Rock River Valley to radiate, but I wouldn't say they would be in the Nate Dogg and Warren G category like OWD or SFM. Actually kind of wild that I'm neck and neck with DVN for snowfall on the season so far.

All the NCEP ensemble variance is tied to the reloading of the EPO ridge. Which isn't even part of the trough that comes onshore over the West Coast tomorrow, it's still out NW of Hawaii. Hopefully GOES-17 is providing some nice satellite estimates.

Good news is once we flip to the FV3 the trend will definitely be colder in the long range.

I'm at 43.3" for the year, which is just about 8" above normal for the date. CON is slightly lagging PWM so far this winter, so they are slightly below normal.

You also have the basic fact that the Pac jet is stronger, and therefore easier for the models to sniff out. Stronger synoptic features are easier for NWP to pin down, and it's why winter verification scores are always better than summer.

I didn't hear much complaining about luck from the E MA folks in 2015...

PWM finally gets below 0. Only failed to do so twice.

5.9” total here.

Nice aggregates currently, 1.2”

Right under that vort max should rock. Decent coating here so far, not quite an inch yet.

Best severe of the year.

At least up here most of the warmth is close to the ground, makes CC less useful at distance from the radar.

I think X and I got curious trying to measure in a pinch out of the garage door.

A 16 oz can is 6” tall, FYI. Just in case you can’t find the ruler for the rain.

I can’t say I’m surprised. When I saw the 00z HRRR last night so cold during the evening I knew we might be a little light.

Models were really chilly last night. And something about a daytime high in the teens screamed more snow than not for PWM.

X chucking

Possibly legit convection.