OceanStWx

Yeah, not great. Digging into the grids it's even uglier than it looks. We have the warm temps, but it's a 12 hour weather grid so it takes the average temp. That's just enough to sneak under the threshold for all snow (usually 34).

I've done Fox Ridge once before. Spring Meadows was the course I joined because it was close to work. Nonesuch River was always my preferred course in Portland (vicinity). And Belgrade Lakes is close to my in-laws and probably my other most frequently played course up here.

I've come that close as well. 4th hole Falmouth (ME) CC from 165. Pin right center, right at the bottom of a ridge. I hit the top of the ridge and gravity worked in my favor. After hanging on the edge of the slope it started to wobble and trickle back down. It always stayed just outside the hole, but settled 6 inches away. I had another at Spring Meadows in Gray, 16th hole about 110. I threw my gap wedge at the center of the green. I normally hit that around 115, so I played it back and tried to drive one in with some zip on it. I surprised myself when it spun back 10 yards, just missing hitting the flag stick on the way by. So that makes my longest hole out 85 yards (for eagle), but it was a scramble so I feel like it only half counts.

Even the pros are 50/50 at like 10 ft. So pretty much everyone is 2 putting anyway. The key is getting closer to the hole. And to get close to the hole you have to hit it farther (with all your clubs). My game really changed when I increased my distance by 20 yards or so through the bag.

Probably mostly focused on the midweek system. But I didn't say it wouldn't rain on the overnight shift last night: WE STAY ACTIVE BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...WITH ANOTHER TROF FOLLOWING FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS TIME MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT WE DO NOT HAVE A FAVORABLY POSITIONED HIGH PRESSURE TO HOLD COLD IN PLACE. WE DO HAVE DIFFERENCES IN TRACK HOWEVER...WITH THE 09.00Z ECMWF TAKING A SRN TRACK AND WHILE IT IS STILL ON THE MILD SIDE HAS MORE COLD AIR THAN THE 09.00Z GFS. A HIGH POP FORECAST BUT LOW CONFIDENCE PTYPE.

Trying to get you to +10 at 850

My kid has two teeth and practically stands up on his own, so I'm good to get back out there right?

It's gotta be tough for Bryce to watch his father unravel like this.

Any golf weenies in here ever read up on strokes gained? My wife got me Every Shot Counts years ago and cover to cover was a fascinating book about how to look at advanced golf statistics. I even found an Excel spreadsheet to track my own strokes gained vs. a scratch golfer. Basically I lose the majority of my strokes from approach shots (mostly approaches from the fairway believe it or not). I always thought that I would lower my scores if I focused on short game, because that's the conventional advice. Turns out it's my long game that sucks, too many penalty strokes, poor tee shots, and chunky irons.

I'll be curious if the NWS snow forecasts can remain in check. I would start with a standard SWFE climo and we can move either way from there. As Kevin loves to say, we can always adjust higher.

Got a couple indoor simulator locations in the PWM area now which I love. They use the same tech as the Golf Channel, so it's a pretty realistic experience (if you drop the gimmes down to 3 ft or less). Trying to get that club speed into the low 100s more frequently. Actually joined a league this winter, which is slowly bringing my game back after the kid destroyed my handicap.

The shift is almost over, I'm kind of out of things to do...

Day 6 ensemble sensitivity was like a 15 mb variance in SLP with the primary in the Great Lakes (from the 12z runs). So definitely wide goalposts on the surface low right now.

Guidance is in good agreement right now. So what could go wrong? I suspect that will wobble around a bit in guidance as the upper low out west changes subtly run to run.

In three weeks the only thing I want to take is a trip to the driving range.

If I had to hazard a guess, it's because models are struggling with how to handle the anticyclonic wave breaking event over western North America, and how the resulting cut off low evolves.

https://www.weather.gov/dvn/01241967_tornadooutbreak The late Jan 1967 outbreak was one of the largest in QCA history (including an F4). Of course it was also followed up by a foot of snow two days later. I would hit a redux in a heartbeat.

Bang the FV3. Colder than the GFS as usual. But that model core just loves the boundary layer warm air.

Where's the eggplant emoji when you need it...

I mean even the GFS 2 m temps show it.

Nice explainer thread here.

You obviously need more perfectly aligned conditions for the later season events. Preferably nocturnal, otherwise very cold air masses.

Yep, I had that one in my thesis but of course the storm events database doesn't go back that far and I couldn't remember if it was '94 or '95.

2/1/11 and 3/14/97 in CT for example. Parts of northern MA got into some ice Feb 2008 too.