OceanStWx

Man even Hawai'i is piling on our winter of yore. Mauna Kea ripped off a 191 mph wind gusts with the low pressure passing north of the islands today. And here with thought MWN's 148 mph was cool.

I think that would be a great way to round out met winter, with a Great Lakes blizzard filling up the creeks and streams locally.

Euro is actually pretty warm at 700 mb too. That would bring mix pretty far north between 06-09z.

I look at it a lot of times from an omega perspective. Most people are looking at a 6 to 9 hour window tops for strong lift. It's unlikely you'll do an inch an hour for 6-9 hours, so there's your upper bounds.

Yeah, I'm going to toss some of what the GFS is selling. It drops at least another 0.25" QPF after the dry slot. That's not going to happen. So we're already lopping 2-4" off the totals.

If I had to do it all over again, I would check my ego. I picked up clubs and headed right for the tees with everyone else. I spent so many years slicing off the tee that I started fearing playing golf altogether. Took a long time to get over that. When I moved to Iowa for my first NWS job (2008) I dedicated myself to trying to improve. Bought my first real set of clubs, started watching the Golf Channel self-help shows, hit the range a couple times a week. I broke 50 for the first time in 2010 (shot a 46) on the little 9 hole course just north of the office, Rustic Ridge. 7 years later I got my handicap index down to 9.7. Someday I'll tell my son how he blew that up.

It supports what Will has been saying though: tamp down the ridging following Tue/Wed and you get a better chance as a southern track low.

The 3 EOFs for the ensemble sensitivity are all different low locations. Usually you can find one that is like a speed difference. You have your St. Lawrence runner, your Delmarva redeveloper, and you DTW tuck.

A little bit of a bifurcated set of solutions. Some stemwind up the St. Lawrence and there are others that stemwind into the Maritimes. So a mean solution may not be the best play. Either we torch or we don't.

I’d be a little cautious with those. Some of their blend is going to mix too much on the eastern coastline, and thereby reduce the probs in those zones.

I just copy the image address and paste in the media gui.

We toss long and far

I have a sump pump now , so bring it.

That's pretty much where I'm at. And I'm definitely regretting posting anything about snow on our social media this morning.

I think someone may get a foot, but it's hard to do it on a widespread basis when there is no closed low to our SE. 850 mb tries, but too late.

Lot of rains to Maine.

Yeah, looking like a 4-6" based on that hourly output.

It's at least a direct output of what is in the forecast grids. The P&C is just a computer interpretation of it.

Check the Hourly Weather Graph, you have plenty of snow in the 12 hour Tuesday night period. I have no idea why it splits hairs with the "possibly mixed with snow".

?? They are derived off that exact snowfall map.

Benjamin and I were in very good agreement last night.

Congrats Dendrite

What about Pit2?

I'm surprised people were able to hold off last night. The weenies are getting restless.

Nah, winter of 1936-37 sucked. 13.42" precip, 2.7" snow at BOS. Over 8" in December alone, bad luck there.