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OceanStWx

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Everything posted by OceanStWx

  1. OceanStWx
    Our plan right now is like 4 nights in Jackson, followed by 4 or 5 in Yellowstone.
  2. OceanStWx
    Anybody made the trip to Grand Teton/Yellowstone? Looks like I'll be there in August, and I want to know what I shouldn't miss.
  3. OceanStWx
    I guess I could lump in the ARW and NMM together as the highest QPF, but that's not a shock. So no wonder there is some SREF love tonight.
  4. OceanStWx
    Flag on the play. NAM is the highest QPF amount for CHH, and especially so for interior SNE.
  5. OceanStWx
    E MA could definitely benefit. The HRRR is showing a pretty uniform simulated reflectivity, which supports the DGZ staying saturated.
  6. OceanStWx
    Yeah, I wouldn't bank on much snow after 12z for SNE. Could it happen? Sure, but I wouldn't be betting the house on it.
  7. OceanStWx
    Still have my caution flags about DGZ RH for most of the day Monday over SNE, but there is definitely like a 4-5 hour window there Sunday night where SNE can do some work. HRRRX is showing around near 1"/hr rates for areas between 03 and 09z. Could definitely see someone pull 4-5" before the radar shreds. Eastern areas probably have a better chance to see things linger. And I would not be shocked at all if someone like Mitch pulled out a decent event. The forcing just deforms right over that area.
  8. OceanStWx
    Still more inches than BOS???
  9. OceanStWx
    This has been some winter.
  10. OceanStWx
    Quite the segue.
  11. OceanStWx
    Well that's a pretty good way to get this site blocked on NOAA IPs.
  12. OceanStWx
    Head to a place like OK with their 3 point beer. Watered down watered down beer. You could crush a twelve pack and still derive QC theory.
  13. OceanStWx
    I mean if I have to shotgun something on a boys' weekend that's my preference.
  14. OceanStWx
    QPF is pretty often biased high in areas where the DGZ is unsaturated. In drizzle you're lucky to tick off a couple hundredths, but model QPF will be more like 0.10-0.15". I wouldn't bank on the full QPF amounts.
  15. OceanStWx
    Just a quick run through Bufkit for CHH I see 6.1" for the NAM, 3.7 for the NAM3km, and 4.5" for the GFS. So possible not probable, which means confidence for a watch probably isn't there.
  16. OceanStWx
    I'm not sure there is the confidence in 6+ to with a watch.
  17. OceanStWx
    Everyone loves their Currier and Ives in February.
  18. OceanStWx
    Northeast surface winds aren't going to matter a whole lot, you want to saturate 700 mb or so, and that's a westerly flow. So we need models to be wrong to our west. There is that first wave Sunday night that more or less is an equal opportunity light snow, but by Monday morning all the RH is north.
  19. OceanStWx
    If it's not saturated you aren't going to grow any crystals. You could get snizzle/drizzle, but you aren't going to get snow. The best case scenario is that modeling is wrong about saturation.
  20. OceanStWx
    I mean one concern I see with modeling is the poor RH in the DGZ over parts of SNE. Definitely more saturation to the north.
  21. OceanStWx
    3 km FV3 nest is showing Pike as well. But I'm also just starting to dig into the data.
  22. OceanStWx
    Cornell still sings a modified version of that jingle to the hockey head coach (Schafer) after victories. A LOT of Keystone is college. Also had the 55 packs of Molson Canadian in the shape of a mini keg. You could get one of those into the dorms in a hockey bag. Nowadays it's mostly IPAs. On a hot summer day I reach for a Maine Island Trail Ale from Rising Tide. A 4.5% but with flavor.
  23. OceanStWx
    I’m now over 50” on the season, above normal and slightly ahead of least year’s 49.7”. PWM ended up with 91.9”
  24. OceanStWx
    There was a CoCoRaHS station 1.5 SE of EPO that had 183.2” for that season. So someone in the vicinity was surely close.
  25. OceanStWx
    Now we have the 13:1 aggregates. Could snag another inch if this keeps up.
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