OceanStWx

Maybe we shouldn't be surprised either that the GFS may have sniffed this out sooner. The progressive bias of that model allowed the lead shortwave to exit faster and allow more room for the next to amplify just enough. The Euro even 24-36 hours ago was hanging that back over ME and not giving any room for the second shortwave to move into SNE.

It's great how you can see the standing wave there upstream and then downstream clearing.

We downslope

That was actually one mitigating factor for big winds that I forgot to include in yesterday's AFD. Just changing the mixing level by 1000 ft is enough to start capping winds.

But his neighborhood has great views.

Yeah that was pretty bad. Simple mixing temps down from 900 or 850 mb gave highs around 30.

I'd already say this is an impressive NW flow event. A few 50 kt gusts measured at ASOS/AWOS plus both CEF and EWR sustained at high wind criteria (> 35 kt).

True, that's a third way.

For anyone to hit 80 mph you need one of two things, either to 100% mix down the top of the boundary layer and have models be off by 5-10 knots to boot, OR you have a poorly sited anemometer that has some localized channeling effects.

There are a lot of NWS offices that could use that rule taped to the workstations. The call might be coming from inside the house on that one too, because as I've told Ryan and Scott, GYX is sitting at a cool 39% false alarm rate on warnings this season. Given that it's an 80% confidence product, you would expect a number 20% or less if you're doing it right.

Yeah, pretty much. There's a lot of wide eyed stares at 65 knots at the top of the boundary layer, but these well mixed events tend to do just that - mix well. You end up averaging out your top and bottom of the boundary layer. That gives you a lot of 50-55 knot gusts, not the isolated 65.

You'll do better than that here, but when Kevin talks about forests being leveled October 2017 up here is what that is like. That beat the 1998 ice storm for customer outages at CMP, so this event will not even come close.

That would be the one. There's just something about the sound of chainsaws on Halloween.

This won't even touch October 2017.

It is exceedingly rare to have ASOS/AWOS top 50 kt. In a perfect world I probably would've slapped an advisory everywhere, but there were enough forecast soundings showing 65 kt at the top of the mixed layer and the way ALY and BOX already had warnings out that I could justify a few counties in my southern zones too. In the end I have 8 ASOS/AWOS in my warnings, and I'll be pleasantly surprised if more than 2 hit 50 kt. I'll eat my hat if that happens. I'm feeling a 50-55 kt type day, not near-hurricane force on NW flow.

The Euro more often than not has the larger hemispheric pattern more correct than the other guidance. That's an indisputable fact. It may have some issues with East Coast cyclogenesis, but I would not be surprised one bit if the latest research shows that to not be the case either. I'm just not up to date on that so I can't confirm one way or the other.

Yes, the bias beyond day 6 (actually at all lead times) is for low heights. So the Euro may over-amplify, but the GFS does it too, only worse.

WNY is no stranger to west flow HWWs, but I'm cautiously optimistic at how this turns out for us.

I wonder how useful verification of such a small domain would be anyway. I hesitate to use the L word, but there is a lot of nuance that can lead to large errors locally. Also, post-day 7 if you're going to use the GFS use the 18z run.

They don't have a domain for the Northeast snow weenie belt.

NHem 20-80 latitude, but if you drill down to something smaller like the PNA region the same pattern holds.

Nothing like thumbing through climatology are seeing the glorious AN season of 2018-2019.

I mean it looks like a well collaborated map, but BTV's winter weather advisory is for tomorrow and tomorrow night while ours is currently in effect. And the wind advisories on the Maine coast are from completely opposite wind directions when you switch from GYX to CAR (we are NW flow and CAR is SE flow).

I just had to add thunder to the forecast for southern NH.