OceanStWx

Yeah, when the reports started coming in of a possible microburst... But we did dig into the mesonets nearby and you could see the localized strong gusts. IIRC the inversion height was perfect for ranges like the Ossipees.

It's more that it is dry aloft in the mid levels. Wet bulb cooling the column is doing the bulk of the work there even with torchy surface temps. Surprised there haven't been a ton of AFDs crapping on the event because of warm ground. That was a great WTF event.

That's what we've found for the QPF side of the HREF. Picks out the max values well, but the areal extent is usually too large.

One thing I keep seeing on Bufkit forecast soundings is that the first 10-12 or so inches have deep saturation through the DGZ, but the next 6-10 the DGZ dries out. I would be pretty wary of that additional snow unless that profile changes significantly on these 12z runs.

LOL at the entire GYX CWA having 90% chance of 12" in 24 hrs from 00z Thu to 00z Fri.

My biggest concern is the near surface freezing temps. Is that enough to change the character of the snow, because otherwise it should be pretty dry stuff. There's also a real chance we can dynamically cool the surface even more when we toss a bunch of precip into the column given how cold it is just off the deck.

04z now.

Maybe even some accumulating snow too.

Extreme Forecast Index looking tasty from the overnight runs. QPF is pretty meh on this product, but that makes sense because 2"+ QPF in April is not unheard of. Plowable snow in April is much more rare, and so we're getting pretty uniform high EFI numbers. Most anomalous near the coast, where you wouldn't expect much April accumulation normally. The Shift of Tails black lines show your forecast potential, the highest of the high end members. A value of 2 is pretty good, and shows the biggest boom potential is just north of that mid level warm front. Congrats Dendrite?

Looking at LWM, they drop blow 0C at 950 mb like Wednesday afternoon and stay there for the duration. Now the models all have it mixing thanks to some 700 mb warm air initially, but by midnight-ish Wednesday night the whole column is cold enough for snow.

I'll say, there is really good lift in the snow growth zone around midnight Wednesday night. But the DGZ is also at like 500 mb. That always gives me pause.

I guess we had to call our plow contract in too. Mid shift ended up parking on the side of the road.

A lot of pros could stand to use that mindset too. Post analysis of events you fumbled are way more useful than anything else you pick up along the way.

Very suck. Much bad here. I’ve got as much as 0.33” radial and shotgun blasts are going off all through the neighborhood. Caught a nice transformer flash while I was out measuring. Really confirms that 0.75” ASOS measured flat ice is the right number around here for an ice storm warning.

Got the kids down just in time for the power and internet to go out. Genny’s running but can’t watch a damn thing.

Between snow and sleet I’m at 6.1” today (0.5” pure sleet), and up to 0.2” radial ice now. Power has flickered four times now.

This is the correct interpretation. 10% of the time snowfall will be greater than the number shown, or conversely a 90% chance that snowfall will be 29" or less. Ideally, 80% of the time your snowfall should fall between the high number and low number.

We're a unique site. Our inflation building was heated, but not to the safety standards you need when generating hydrogen. You probably could see the mushroom cloud from KLEW.

We don't? News to me. We ran out of helium a couple of weeks ago, but we launching again now. Pretty soon we'll be able to turn the hydrogen generator back on too.

Less of a squall now and more of an inverted trof as the coastal starts to take over. Just going to chuck up the advisories.

Pit2 FTW

Seriously though that is one of the big use cases the NWS is excited about anyway. The ability to run large ensembles quickly and frequently.

Some would argue it's always been useless.

No lies detected.