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OceanStWx

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Everything posted by OceanStWx

  1. OceanStWx
    Yeah vis was never that impressive here at GYX, but we had those big aggregates that pile up quickly.
  2. OceanStWx
    Nah, it's good that you're looking to see what forcing the current radar matches best.
  3. OceanStWx
    I wouldn't get too psyched over the max product. The NSSL and ARW members go a little nuts with the OES. But the PMM (probability matched mean) snowfall is probably a good sense of your personal upper bound. 6" with 2-4" from synoptic plus ocean enhancement is a fair high end goal post.
  4. OceanStWx
    That was already modeled to be fine, this is more to calm to worries of those that can still see the sun despite snow in the forecast.
  5. OceanStWx
    You can see there is some deeper moisture (light blue) moving north towards SNE now. That will help later.
  6. OceanStWx
    Oddly, that's where all the 00z Euro sensitivity was. So the two models have uncertainty, but coming from different regions. I guess the GFS really does love the northern stream.
  7. OceanStWx
    NCEP sensitivity is all tied to the PV lobe dropping down into the Great Lakes. More ridging ahead of it, more amped the solution.
  8. OceanStWx
    This is pretty much all WAA f-gen driven.
  9. OceanStWx
    Yeah, the ensemble members that needed the stronger weekend system to stay less amplified Monday were skewed heavily Euro. I counted only a couple members each from the GEFS and CMC.
  10. OceanStWx
    At least on the 00z ensemble runs, the weaker the weekend system the more amped the early week one. This run looks to support that.
  11. OceanStWx
    If that's the case, could be good for the follow up then.
  12. OceanStWx
    The drifts at CAR are the stuff of @Ginx snewx's dreams.
  13. OceanStWx
    You, Diane, and James get your revenge?
  14. OceanStWx
    What a pair.
  15. OceanStWx
    Looks to me like it didn't shift north or south, but rather tightened up around Route 2.
  16. OceanStWx
    My wife is always looking for new HR clients. Maybe we need to take a road trip. The ratings look pretty decent. Man I wish we had some AWPAGs laying around, but they keep all that stuff locked up in KC.
  17. OceanStWx
    Didn't look like it changed a whole lot.
  18. OceanStWx
    Lift more solidly in the DGZ for NE MA, but CT is a warmer (near -10C) column for lift. Not bad, but enough to be a difference with that model.
  19. OceanStWx
    I definitely haven't had a bad one yet. And some very good ones for sure. Julius and Doubleganger are top notch.
  20. OceanStWx
    I mean it does appear there is a risk for a whiff on one or the other. But a whiff on the first sets up the second better.
  21. OceanStWx
    Snowfall forecasting is difficult, especially when you are trying to nail the difference between 4 inches and 6 inches. I would not mind a push back towards the days of yore when WFOs held warnings off until 12-24 hours before an event. Watches? Whatever, I'm fine going long lead on those. But we are not good enough to nail warnings down to the county level beyond 24 hours yet. Certainly not when closed lows are passing to your NW.
  22. OceanStWx
    HRRR and HREF are definitely on the wagon's north train. The HRRR is actually north of a Route 2 special.
  23. OceanStWx
    "Yeah, honey I'm running out for milk" Comes back 5 hours later.
  24. OceanStWx
    Hmm, is @Damage In Tolland going to pick me up some Very Green at Tree House today?
  25. OceanStWx
    Probably not unsurprisingly those members that keep it close to the coast also keep the mid level baroclinic zone closer to the coast, and have more ridging at 500 mb to our east. Maybe more interestingly is that those members also have weaker/further SE systems for the weekend (maybe because a stronger system would drive the baroclinic zone farther SE as well).
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