OceanStWx
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Everything posted by OceanStWx
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Certain parameters may improve (like the satellite microphysics I mentioned) but like you say the grid resolution won't. This upgrade will make it easier to change resolution down the road though, which is one of the major reasons for the upgrade.
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Well the resolution didn't change this time around. But overall that's why they run these things in parallel, so they can test that they aren't harming any previous good a model did. This is a "do no harm" upgrade, so any degradation is basically noise. There will be plenty of hot takes about how bad the model is when it has its first big bust, but those will be mostly overblown beyond the normal the GFS just isn't as good a global model as the Euro and Ukie.
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Overall it's a marginal improvement over the GFS, and we shouldn't expect to see drastic changes from the old core.
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Generally speaking, once websites get their kinks worked out, the "GFS" will be the FV3 core. Any "para" version will be the old core.
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Best way to check is via the simulated satellite. FV3 is better resolution (different parameterization) than the old GFS. So Tidbits was FV3.
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Correct.
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I mean they all play the same course right? I don't particularly care if the winner is +10 or -10, but the guy who plays the best golf over 72 holes will win it. And you know what, I bitch and moan when my course doesn't mow or rake the bunkers well enough, or sticks the pin on a ridge. I enjoy seeing pros complain too. Maybe the should try making birdie from a soggy fairway and a green where the grass died in March from ice cover.
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In fairness the GFS didn't crap itself, but the way website receive the GFS did. Probably just a naming convection issue. I have to back Louis up on this one.
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Yep, this one coming out is the new core. It's a different world now.
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I don't really get that deep into the weeds beyond if the last few days have been rainy.
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Happy FV3 day everyone!
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I don't know, I hate advection fog. It's so fickle. Patterns that look great will sometimes bust, and patterns that look meh will sock in. Radiation fog is mostly pattern recognition and persistence (once you know the terrain well enough).
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Advection fog can feature pretty strong winds. Sometimes a breeze actually helps the fog form. Convergence near the coast actually creates a subtle amount of lift to cool the air to saturation. Typically we don't have very strong winds with this type of advection fog though. Seeing moisture actually increase with height is definitely a check mark for favorable.
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It's possible for some dense fog as the warm front stays hung up along the coast. You don't need to advect very high dewpoints into our area before fog forms this time of year (water temps still in the low 50s).
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It only took a year and a half but we (I) finally got around to planting at the new house. Two 10x3' beds on either side of the front door, and another 12x3' bed on the side of the house that is really visible from the street. The good news is I have 96 ft sq. ft. less to mow, the bad news I had 96 sq. ft of lawn to dig up. Now I just need to figure out what I can plant along the edge with the "wetlands" that is prettier to look at than weeds.
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I can tolerate mosquito bites, and even after the initial pain of a horse/deer fly, but black fly bites I think I have a special reaction to. They itch like crazy. To the point I'd consider severing the limb than go on.
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I loved my time out there, and it's tough to hear how bad it is right now. And that sets up potential feedback into what are the wettest months of the year. Way more moisture out there that typical evapotranspiration offers.
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Oh man this is really starting to remind me of all those chasers that get mad because they are out there for science but get stuck in traffic instead and blame other people.
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Dayton suburbs got rocked
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I'm still baffled by my return to golf after keeping my kid alive for his first year. Short game is on point, putter feels great, chipping in from greenside. Approach and tee shots are garbage. A real liability. Signs of life this past week though. Had 3 shots in the round from 115, usually my gap wedge distance. Carried all three at least 130, and not because of a skulled shot either. All solid strikes.
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Time to change the thread title?
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Well the local GYX course had its first scramble last night. It is damp. It's not just soggy, but water is still actively draining through the fairways in places.
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2019 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Thread
OceanStWx replied to snowlover2's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
DVN had a nice low level meso spin up along the QLCS just west of the office. Looks like it gusted out and probably gave the office a nice peak wind. -
Probably closer to the coast than GYX/Raymond. But I think it's on the table for sure just west of the coastal front.
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HREF actually had the Scooter jack.
