OceanStWx
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Everything posted by OceanStWx
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What does it say about me that it was more my style to rip a 6 pack or bottle of wine back in Advanced Forecasting while we talked about the Indian Monsoon?
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That's wild. I see no boundaries. Like a snow weenie's Roschach test.
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Aaaaand I'm going to want to give you a 70, 80, 90% for that answer.
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Obviously the key with f-gen is that this is where the lift originates from. It will most often be sloped towards the cold air, and so snow falls farther NW then where the f-gen max actually is. The more 700 mb f-gen is maxed right over 850, the more likely that there will be a sharper NW edge.
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My guess is modeled f-gen is literally taking the change in T over time. But as we know, models often under-forecast how much warming occurs aloft. We notice it more when it gets to 0C, but the same really applies when it's -10C.
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I usually ballpark somewhere NW of the 850 lowest closed contour (like between that and the next contour) or right on the NW part lowest closed contour of the 700 mb low. Since we don't have 700 this time around, 850 shows in squarely over the SNE zone you mentioned.
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The FV3 would currently be an incremental improvement on the GFS. The real benefit could be down the road, emphasis on could as long as we don't shoot ourselves in the foot as we transition to the next gen of US modeling. That's a real good look on the GFS for interior SNE. I would suspect QPF (or at least ratios) will be better through the ORH area than what is depicted verbatim.
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Great flakes now.
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The 00z NAM looks like it may be a hair too high with heights in the base of the shortwave out west, but that could also be a function of being too slow at initialization.
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I mean there is more to forecasting than New England. NWP continues to get better, year over year, even if it doesn't seem that way in your backyard. And I can't believe I'm doing this but, the FV3 is an improvement over the GFS. My guess is that there was too much complaining about clown maps from the field and so implementation got delayed. Which says more about the forecasters than the models in my opinion.
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He is. But I don’t expect a huge shift to that forecast. Looks pretty good to me, maybe a hair too broad in the NW side.
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That wasn’t even X. I’m shocked we pumped the brakes on the amounts. Usually we go in the opposite direction.
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By the time I get in, we’re going down with the ship. X has it tonight though.
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Can really see the mid level magic there.
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That 18z shows a really healthy scenario. 850 low pops right over SNE and 700 mb tried to kink at the same time. That would be some real lift in the midnight to 4 am window. I’d sign up for that f-gen look.
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I mean the spread is actually still to the north of mean low positions, so that’s where our bust potential probably lies. Now that could still mean mix and crappy amounts for SE MA...
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I'd keep an eye on 00z soundings out west tonight. Compare those obs to model forecast heights.
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That's definitely a better 700 mb look. Doesn't close off until it's farther east, but it definitely deforms the flow with a nice kink.
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Just like SNE snowfall since 2015?
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Weird look of only like 0.25" despite what the mid level track looks like. I would say on its face it's not much different than the Euro/NAM look.
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The models I have looked at so far are a great looking thump around ORH though.
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That sounds like a pretty solid place to be. I'd like to see trends towards deeper mid levels if I'm going to adjust up. I don't start shift again until Sunday night, so I'm just the clean up crew.
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Haven't looked at a ton of detail with this system, but my first blush look at no 700 mb low has me a little concerned for some of the totals GYX is forecasting. I'd like to see a closed circulation there and more than just WAA to get that much double digit snowfall. 850 does it, so it's not far off though.
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Perhaps a Coastal Storm on March 2nd for SNE????
OceanStWx replied to USCAPEWEATHERAF's topic in New England
I was just going to say that! -
Perhaps a Coastal Storm on March 2nd for SNE????
OceanStWx replied to USCAPEWEATHERAF's topic in New England
I mean I don't see a satellite based reason to toss the GFS yet. If I'm going to nitpick, it's probably a hair slow with the Dakotas kicker (which obviously could have large downstream impacts). That leading area of vorticity in the Carolinas that models have is interesting. Looping the regional radar and there is clearly a spin to the precip, so it's not some phony convectively created feature.
