OceanStWx
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Everything posted by OceanStWx
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That's one thing that was well modeled leading up to the event. The output and probabilities for 1 and 2 inches per hour kept increasing right through 00z last night.
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And collapsing from the W across LI. Foster-Gloucester wins again.
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IJD just ripped off 0.08" liquid in 25 minutes. That's some heavy snow.
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Right in that 0 to -1 wet bulb is prime.
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The good news is that this is progressive, so you shouldn't end up stuck in it for long. And I think things fill in nicely for SE NH 09-12z.
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GYX had 0.5" of 16:1 snow at midnight.
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I would lean towards power related, but I'm just saying it's not impossible. And the thunder is not a given, because snow and distance will muffle the sound.
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Well think of it this way, you are lifting cooler/moist air in the exit region. Sounds a lot like your cold conveyor right? So it's not a bad thing. KUs are KUs because you couple the indirect circulation of the sub-tropical jet with the direct circulation of the polar jet.
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There are some IC flashes about 100 miles S of LI right now. It's possible that's close enough to illuminate the clouds over RI too.
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Rough estimation based on current speed of the back edge is done at BDL in 5 hours, ORH in 6, and NE MA in 7. But this may delay slightly as the mid levels deepen.
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Right entrance is a direct circulation (i.e. warm air rising on the Equatorward side, cold air sinking on the polar side), so think WAA thump style.
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Watch the echoes down over NJ. See the speed and direction they are taking (right at the heart of SNE). 700 mb front is probably not moving much, but 850 will tick NW some as the low approaches. But that precip over NJ will be slamming into a wall. That's the 40-50kt flags Will was pointing out yesterday.
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I'm definitely in support of this dual banded structure we're seeing right now. The western band is pretty well aligned with 700 mb f-gen at the moment. The NAM isn't too far off that representation. The actual radar echoes are NW of that f-gen, so if you continue that trend into the NAM forecast for 09z SE NH and coastal western ME will do just fine.
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Maybe not increase, but give you no reason to discount higher QPF numbers.
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You want convective aligned roughly north/south, that promoted northward moisture transport. East/west convection (think warm front or stationary front) is bad for northward transport.
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Lot of easterly here, and then vectors try and peel back to the NW. Not a great way to max the moisture.
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Yep, 06-09z looks pretty sweet.
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Wagons north?
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This is what you want to see from SE convection (not the shunt OTS).
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That ain’t how it works. Warnings are issued based on confidence not current weather. Only in rare circumstances are we allowed to hold watches into the last 12 hours before snow starts.
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Shades of 2015 around PWM. Moving quick enough that the shape of the coastline may put us in a relative min for coastal areas.
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Would not be the first time we saw a SE drift in the 36-48 hour period to come back in the 12-24 window.
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Compared to the QG-vorticity equation...
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Somewhere in there you taught me GFS biases and what the Gun Hill Effect was. Can confirm.
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F-gen is really pretty simple, because you're just dealing with changes in fronts (temp differences). Shear, diffluence, and tilt. So you stretch or shrink temp gradients (u), you diverge or converge temp gradients (v), or you tilt them up or down (w).
