Jump to content

OceanStWx

Meteorologist
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    19,778

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by OceanStWx

  1. OceanStWx
    Sucks the Euro is coming in too late for the forecasts again.
  2. OceanStWx
    Just you replying to yourself all day long.
  3. OceanStWx
    We did at the office. The question now I think is whether it's a permanent flip or if we'll change back to snow as the mid levels cool with the passing of the upper trof.
  4. OceanStWx
    The lows are in pretty short order going to slip east of our longitude too. It'll be interesting to see where the melting layer can stall. Already looks like it may be eroding in York County.
  5. OceanStWx
    Pretty impressive to take 5000 ft of above-freezing air and turn it sub-freezing overnight. And of course this wasn't exclusively a NAM problem either. The position error was always the biggest spread with ensemble sensitivity. And the position error (not strength) was always the biggest driver of rain vs snow for the GYX area.
  6. OceanStWx
    I mean this was only 24 hours ago from the NAM. Mid level winds are most definitely south of east. And here's the 1 hour lead time from this morning's NAM. No warm nose and mid level winds most definitely almost due east. Our actual sounding had about +0.5C at it's warmest.
  7. OceanStWx
    I wonder if the delay in precip (was supposed to start ~8z) helped wet bulbs tick down too. Flow being more easterly definitely allowed slightly lower dews in the backdoor.
  8. OceanStWx
  9. OceanStWx
    We angry about forecast yesterday. Trends were not my friend overnight.
  10. OceanStWx
    I mean it is when the 700 mb low slips east, but we know how much of a fraud backside snow from a departing low can be around here. We don't TROWAL like the Midwest.
  11. OceanStWx
  12. OceanStWx
    Man the 00z ensemble sensitivity still showed a coherent pattern showing up only around 24-36 hours lead time (tied to the first phase of the Ohio Valley shortwaves). Still time for adjustments.
  13. OceanStWx
    But, as I said above, our perception of what normal actually is a relatively short period. It probably is more relevant to explain normals in a smaller chunk of time than the whole period of record.
  14. OceanStWx
    Perception has a lot to do with it, and some studies have shown that humans ability to remember past year's conditions may only be on the order of 2-5 years on average. Meaning that just about every winter will be perceived as colder than normal.
  15. OceanStWx
    It depends on what exactly is being done with the data, but for NWS purposes the normals continue to change with the base period. That way we're comparing actual departures from normal for that base period, rather than the 1880s departures always getting colder relative to the new published normals.
  16. OceanStWx
    He hasn't. If you're really interested in sub-seasonal severe weather prediction you should check out: http://atlas.niu.edu/ertaf/
  17. OceanStWx
    That feature is definitely going to have implications on the forecast. The 3 upper PV anomalies are fairly well resolved by the models at this point, but low level PV anomalies are a little trickier. But the constructive interference of lower and upper level PV anomalies coupling in the vertical can be huge drivers of rapid cyclogenesis.
  18. OceanStWx
    I can certainly see why there's a jackknifed semi every other day there during the winter.
  19. OceanStWx
    Yeah, 10 degrees is insane, but under the right conditions from the far western part of Vernon to the highest point on 84 in Tolland you could see as much as a 4 degree F swing. There's like 600 ft elevation change there.
  20. OceanStWx
    https://news.gallup.com/poll/247910/one-third-blame-unusual-winter-temps-climate-change.aspx?wpisrc=nl_energy202&wpmm=1 Some soft respondents in the "east"? 34% saying a colder than normal winter despite the objective fact that it has not been colder than normal.
  21. OceanStWx
    Drove up 84 yesterday, and I was shocked how the temp dropped like 10 degrees as the highway rose up towards Tolland. Truly a magical place. But I did get to pit stop at Tree House. Got my hands on Very Green for the first time, so I'm excited about that. Also grabbed at least a can of everything else they had on offer. Quite a few I haven't had before (SSSappp, Super Typhoon, In Perpetuity, Curiosity 61).
  22. OceanStWx
    Won't be able to buy 7.3 C/km 700-500 in July though.
  23. OceanStWx
    Non-uniform beam filling. It happens when the sample volume has a gradient of ptypes in it. So it could be snow to rain or in this case hail/graupel and rain.
  24. OceanStWx
    Mothballs or M&Ms (0.5"). If I had to guess.
  25. OceanStWx
    Ain't that low topped either. 50 dBZ to 20,000 ft is more than enough this time of year for lots of lightning.
×
×
  • Create New...