OceanStWx

So that VP2 could be 2C off and reading 23C for a dew, and 73F sounds about right on line with ASOS readings.

AWOS is a FAA maintained piece of equipment, and typically they are only concerned with instrumentation that is affecting flight ops. So dews not real high on the priority list.

ASOS are maintained by the NWS to an accuracy standard of about 1C for normal range in temperatures/dewpoints (don't let Scott see regarding BOS). Davis standards are 2C, and that's assuming someone is regularly calibrating their sensor. So that's generally why a personal station or AWOS can slip into bias territory.

That 80 dew near the NW tip of IL is DBQ. That's an ASOS and as accurate as we're going to get on dews. Impressive. Also it's the start of the Great Jones County Fair (currently 91/82 at MXO). Ice cold domestics flowing like the Maquoketa River.

Swan dive off the suspension bridge.

ASH has seemed a little too much Tolland lately, but overall 72/73 is starting to get real good for these parts.

What's the evaporative property of chicken poop?

Looks like the NCA used the 1901 to 2013 period and based changes off a 1901-1979 baseline. But statistically significant areas are definitely Great Lakes, Northeast, Upper Midwest, and Ohio Valley.

Most ASOS/AWOS are in the 60s. 70s just starting to creep into southern NH now.

CAMs are pretty meh overall, but I'm a little curious what this anomalous jet streak might do.

That's the general finding. More rain when it rains, but more dry days between events, so overall similar precip. The Northeast has one of the stronger correlations to heavy rainfall events increasing in frequency.

You're welcome.

Right now the 90/10 "goalposts" are 93-99. Scorch-ah.

The op is an outlier in the ensemble spread however. For instance CON, going with 99 and the high member is 100, mean 96, and low 89. So the op is like a 90th percentile forecast.

I wish I had been paying more attention to the PDS of QPF. I'm wondering if there was a signal for a higher likelihood for localized high QPF vs. widespread thanks to the drier air. I know it's Kevin's favorite but we have a long way to go with probabilistic forecasts. We still have a long way to go with the Saffir Simpson scale. Scott is right, that's a garbage excuse not to evacuate, and maybe more evidence that we should move to an impact scale that includes Saffir Simpson. They may have been right to not order an evacuation, but for the wrong reasons.

They also had a plethora of returning vets to employee at airfields. Right now Farmington is a midnight ob, but I'm not sure how long it has been that way.

The short answer is this was a "do no harm" update to the dynamical core. From there it theoretically be easier to improve on forecasts. The longer answer is that the GFS definitely had an over-mixing the boundary layer problem. Obviously showing up most notably during winter storms ( typically inverted) and HHH days (typically high moisture content leading to lower lapse rates). To my knowledge this hasn't been eliminated in the FV3 version. Look for more significant improvements on the model itself in 2020-2021.

Three straight days of 100+ at BOS, sure.

We'll start high and adjust up as needed.

Don't you worry. We have our snow observer taking precip measurements and the have the river gauges to back up temps, we just have to go through the motions of fixing and trying to recover the data before we back fill.

Pretty cool visualization there.

BOS chucking an average low of 70.3 this month certainly helps.

Most likely Post Office.

This is all I can find. Locations: 1945-09-01 to 1948-06-01 0.5 MI SE OF PO 1944-01-01 to 1945-09-01 0.2 MI NE OF PO 1942-02-01 to 1944-01-01 0.7 MI SW OF PO 1898-02-01 to 1942-02-01 0.2 MI N OF PO Relocations 1945-09-01 .6 mi SE 1944-01-01 .8 mi NE 1942-02-01 .9 mi SSW

Shit. Show.