OceanStWx

When we put our mulch beds down we noticed a fox digging around the soft ground. It looked smaller so we thought female, then saw a larger male hunting the tree line. It's possible neighbors landscaping (lots of earth moving equipment) disturbed a den, because we had never seen them before. It appeared to be a sandy morph though, not a traditional red color. Our neighbors are claiming they have seen a coyote (which wouldn't really be surprising in Portland) but I'm not so sure they just didn't catch a glimpse of an off color fox.

The RFD is a component of a supercell. Most simply I can put it is that the rotating updraft causes pressure perturbations in the vertical structure. A high in the middle of the storm and low pressure at the surface. This drives mid level air towards the ground, which is what we call the RFD. Now all supercells do not produce tornadoes, therefore RFDs are not only present when tornadoes are present. Some research does suggest the character of the RFD (i.e. warm, buoyant vs. cold, stable) can be a possible source of tornadogenesis. But there is other work that suggest that horizontal vorticity of the forward flank being ingested is a larger driver. Which is to say that we really don't fully understand tornadogenesis. But Dr. Orf's simulations are pretty jaw dropping FYI.

What I really need to do is just a wedge session on the range. A big problem is I have no idea what my stock distances are with partial and open faced shots, and clearly "just feeling it" with some practice swings isn't working. I definitely have some issues with swing length through. So while I think I'm swinging to my shoulder, the reality is that I'm more likely swinging full.

Yeah, I think that makes sense based on radar data too. Two tornadoes, one storm.

BDL peaks at 85 from 7/10-8/1 But that really isn't much different from the period of record. Obviously individual days vary a little bit, but the POR peaks at 86 (if you round up) on 7/17-18.

Ever since my dad played a tourney that gave away a wedge (Vokey 52) and skulled everything with it and gifted it to me I have been a Vokey convert. I have a 52/56/60. My problem is the stock distances are something like 120/110/100 and I just can't seem to dial it back enough on the shorter shorts. I rarely come up short on the partial wedges.

It would appear so.

Looks like BOX is going to call it one tornado but discontinuous path: https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201907240141-KBOX-NOUS41-PNSBOX

My big takeaway was that I am nowhere near ready for a British Isles trip. So much chipping and pitching. I have the chips, but between that and a full wedge I'm a hot mess. I think my swing overall is too long, and so it's hard to hit a half wedge. But my nightmare is a 50 yard pitch.

Sea salt for whatever reason is very low CC too.

The biggest giveaways for inflow air is very low CC (<0.80) and low Z.

I think the consensus we've landed on is one TDS for sure, and the second is either inflow or potentially fanning out lofted debris. But without seeing the damage on the ground my gut is there were two tornadoes here.

LCL < 1000 m = good, 50 knots at 850 = good, effective shear ~ 60 knots = good, but what really pops out to me was 0-3 km shear approaching 60 knots. That gives you a lot of latitude for bowing segments and surges of wind to spin up brief tornadoes. It's quite possible that we had two quick ones on the Cape. I'm guessing the local thermodynamic environment was slightly better than what the 12z CHH sounding showed.

Yeah try doing this in the field when all you have is a bunch of trees broken like match sticks! That's why the surveys take so long. The wind speed is usually the easy part, determining if it was a tornado and the track is much harder.

Surveys are tough, especially when basing it off tree damage alone. Weak trees (think stronger tornado) relative to an inflow dominant tornado tend to fall before the tornado arrives, so they will actually fall opposite the tornado direction of motion. As the tornado weakens this type of tornado shows a broadening confluent damage path but all roughly in the same direction. As there become more rotation relative to inflow (less convergent) with tornadoes the damage pattern gets even more convoluted. The stronger a tornado gets the more the tree pattern will look unidirectional (but the key is it falls across track). And the stronger and more convergent a tornado gets, the more the confluent zone of damage shifts to the left of track.

Based on the EF-scale that's probably 95-100 mph-like expected damage. So solidly in the EF1 category.

Same areas tomorrow morning look good for some thunder.

Amateur radio reports starting to trickle in from the Cape. Definitely wind damage there.

The best argument I can make for it is it's in a region of plenty of 0-3 km shear (favorable for QLCS mesovortices) and it's near the warm front. Otherwise, I feel pretty meh about that one for an actual tornado. Now QLCS mesovortices don't always produce tornadoes, but they can enhance downdrafts (a la Bob's image). I would probably have stuck to the SVR with "tornado possible" tag.

I see that.

Can't wait to see what EWB puts up, because dual-pol DPR is estimating 7.8"/hr.

Speak for yourself. Barely ending in a fizzle for places like CON.

But dewpoints in the 40s by Moosehead Lake, so there is some sneaky dry air just north of the rain.

We have about 1.5" in the forecast for PWM, and through the first two 6 hours periods of this 36 hour storm total forecast they had 0.14". It better start raining hard soon.

This next round could be a little gustier. Better down by MTP, but shouldn't be bad for you.