OceanStWx

Nice plot added to Iowa Environmental Mesonet of categorical risk by calendar day (for WFO or state). Here's my first year at GYX compared to my last year at DVN... June 2010 was definitely wild out there. Moderate risk 6 of 9 days there late in the month, and 6/5 and 6/17 were large tornado outbreaks.

Going to be a stiff breeze tomorrow too. MAV and MET are around 15 knots (MAV a little higher) which would be good for gusts into the 30 mph range. I like the final score to not be much lower than it is today, maybe -15.

I mean some meh-ing is justified. I have no problem admitting that GYX has a high snow bias. All objective analysis bears that out, EXCEPT in the notches and north. We most likely under-forecast snowfall for those region, mainly due to the missed upslope events. 30% chance of snow showers turns into 6 inches for Alex.

I'm just going to enjoy Saturday and anything else is gravy.

People leaving the board left and right.

Bullseye over a mulch bed at 999 ft elevation in Tolland.

Some people take their snow very seriously...

The folks I know that do this stuff are starting to get a little excited about the end of April and early May... ...in the Plains.

Yeah it sucks we had to shutter so many coops over the last few years, but we already have more than most offices and the order was to trim our numbers. While they are volunteers, the equipment and maintenance cost money, so that's the big driver. And we have quite a few coops in that area already, so they got the ax (in reality they just weren't replaced when the previous observer quit). It's just unfortunate that there are large differences in QPF/snowfall over short distances in that area.

What I want to do is map each snowfall event for several years, forecast vs. obs and from that generate a bias map. ALY has done this already, and can see the spots they forecast too much or too little snow. Ideally you could then stratify it between flow regime (e.g. SWFEs only), and create bias maps based on event type. Those could then be used back in the forecast process.

GYX is 78" on the nose.

FYP

Only 155, but their POR is only back to 1997.

I mean those are basically the reasons right there. Models have broad high QPF biases in winter (QPF is typically much narrower than models depict) and modeled ratios are pretty routinely poor. Combine the two and it's easy to bust high on a snow forecast. I mean I can't argue that GYX has a high snowfall bias, the numbers bear that out season after season. In Eastern Region there are four offices that over a last season (17-18) had observed snow greater than forecast snow (three are in VA, the other DTX). GYX and BOX were pretty far and away the worst offenders for forecast > obs.

It was a nice afternoon in Fairfield Co, but even that's heading in the wrong direction now. The front is slipping back south as the low pops near the Cape.

He is in a tough spot though. Edge of the foothills, models love to be too cold there (especially aloft). It's easy to keep it below freezing at the surface, but easier to mix or get poor ratios than you think. But nobody is in a tougher spot than @alex. We just can't capture the terrain changes with our resolution.

Too bad we weren't lumping the totals in the forecast...

You have to look at Pinkham or First Conn to get into the 170s.

Nope. 162 and 160 respectively.

Congrats Dendrite?

2.5" new so far today brings me to 70.2" on the season...

ITH is sitting at 70. Oh to be back at college. 64 at POU while BDL rots at 42.

Lights down low, glass of wine, soft music playing in the background, and Ryan re-reading severe threads.

Phillips got up to 53" and Brassua Dam 47"